Stade Rennais 0–0 Olympiacos: our model backed Stade Rennais (missed)
7277bac71de3Prediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Stade Rennais win (45%). Final score 0–0.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-0, actual 0-0. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 40% chance; the match had 0 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 45% chance.
RPS for this match0.140Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 13 hours 56 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 0–0.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Stade Rennais the pick at 45% to win. It went the other way: a draw. The most likely score in our grid was 1-0; the actual 0-0 had a 10.1% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.140, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Stade Rennais a 45% chance of beating Olympiacos at Roazhon Park, with the draw at 28% and Olympiacos at 27%. The most likely score is 1-0 (14%). Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Stade Rennais | Draw | Olympiacos | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 45.6% | 27.6% | 26.8% | 1-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 45.6% | 27.6% | 26.8% | 1-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Stade Rennais5th · 16 pts from 9 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 0–4 v Lyon (away), 19 Sep
- Won 4–1 v AJ Auxerre (home), 11 Oct
- Lost 3–4 v Paris FC (away), 18 Oct
- Won 3–0 v Strasbourg (home), 25 Oct
- Lost 2–5 v Nice (away), 30 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–1 v OFI Crete (home), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Lost 3–4 v Paris FC (away), 18 Oct, Ligue 1
- Drew 2–2 v Juventus (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 3–0 v Strasbourg (home), 25 Oct, Ligue 1
- Lost 2–5 v Nice (away), 30 Oct, Ligue 1
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Ligue 1 v Nice, 30 Oct
Olympiacos1st · 10 pts from 4 · 4 days' rest
- Won 2–1 v Jagiellonia Bialystok (home), 16 Sep
- Won 1–0 v Marseille (away), 15 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Sparta Prague (home), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–0 v Panetolikos (away), 18 Oct, Greek Super League
- Won 1–0 v Sparta Prague (home), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Won 5–0 v Kalamata (home), 25 Oct, Greek Super League
- Won 2–0 v GS Marko (away), 28 Oct, Cup Group Stage
- Won 3–2 v Kifisia (away), 31 Oct, Greek Super League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Greek Super League v Kifisia, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
FAQ
What was the result of Stade Rennais vs Olympiacos?
Stade Rennais 0–0 Olympiacos after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Stade Rennais vs Olympiacos correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Stade Rennais the pick at 45%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-0 (14%). The actual 0-0 had a 10.1% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.140.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 01:33 UTC with sha256 7277bac71de3 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling