Ligue 1 predicted table 2026/27
Paris Saint-Germain are favourites at 85% to win the title. Expected points, title and top-four chances and every finishing position come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures.
Predicted table
| # | Club | P | Pts | Exp. pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 20 | 74.2 | 85% | 99% | <1% |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 18 | 58.9 | 4% | 55% | <1% |
| 3 | Lyon | 9 | 17 | 58.1 | 3% | 51% | <1% |
| 4 | Marseille | 9 | 15 | 56.8 | 2% | 44% | <1% |
| 5 | AS Monaco | 9 | 15 | 56.8 | 2% | 42% | <1% |
| 6 | Lens | 9 | 13 | 54.9 | 1% | 33% | <1% |
| 7 | Paris FC | 9 | 17 | 54.5 | 1% | 30% | <1% |
| 8 | Stade Rennais | 9 | 16 | 53.9 | 1% | 27% | <1% |
| 9 | Strasbourg | 9 | 10 | 47.9 | <1% | 8% | <1% |
| 10 | Nice | 9 | 14 | 47.1 | <1% | 6% | <1% |
| 11 | Lorient | 8 | 12 | 44.4 | <1% | 3% | 1% |
| 12 | Toulouse | 9 | 10 | 43.3 | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| 13 | Brest | 8 | 9 | 42.0 | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| 14 | AJ Auxerre | 9 | 10 | 38.0 | <1% | <1% | 8% |
| 15 | Angers | 9 | 8 | 31.0 | <1% | <1% | 35% |
| 16 | Le Mans | 9 | 7 | 30.1 | <1% | <1% | 40% |
| 17 | Le Havre AC | 9 | 2 | 27.9 | <1% | <1% | 53% |
| 18 | Troyes | 9 | 8 | 27.7 | <1% | <1% | 59% |
Sorted by expected final points. P and Pts are the table on 2 Nov, when the forecast ran.
Finishing position probabilities
Chance (%) of finishing in each position. Darker = more likely; blank = under 1%.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | 85 | 10 | 3 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lille | 4 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lyon | 3 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Marseille | 2 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AS Monaco | 2 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lens | 1 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Paris FC | 1 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Stade Rennais | 1 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Strasbourg | <1% | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Nice | <1% | 1% | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lorient | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1% | <1% |
| Toulouse | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | <1% |
| Brest | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1% |
| AJ Auxerre | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 2 |
| Angers | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 15 |
| Le Mans | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 21 | 21 | 19 |
| Le Havre AC | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 23 | 30 |
| Troyes | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 26 | 33 |
Movement this week
- Troyes+3.5 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
- Nice+2.8 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 +3 pp
- Paris Saint-Germain+2.6 ptsTitle +10 · Top 4 +2 pp
- Le Mans−3.8 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
- Stade Rennais−2.3 ptsTitle −2 · Top 4 −13 pp
- AJ Auxerre−2.1 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 −1 pp
Change in expected points since the run on 26 Oct, with title and top-four chances in percentage points (pp).
Frozen pre-season forecast
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 19 Aug 2026). We started covering Ligue 1 after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. We grade it against the final table when the season ends. Frozen 2dc404b3733a
| # | Club | Exp. pts | Title | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 71.9 | 72% | 1st |
| 2 | Lens | 58.2 | 7% | 9th |
| 3 | Marseille | 56.3 | 5% | 6th |
| 4 | Lille | 55.2 | 4% | 2nd |
| 5 | AS Monaco | 54.0 | 3% | 7th |
| 6 | Lyon | 53.6 | 3% | 3rd |
| 7 | Stade Rennais | 51.8 | 2% | 5th |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 50.7 | 2% | 13th |
| 9 | Paris FC | 46.4 | <1% | 4th |
| 10 | Toulouse | 46.2 | <1% | 12th |
| 11 | Nice | 44.3 | <1% | 8th |
| 12 | Lorient | 42.9 | <1% | 11th |
| 13 | Brest | 42.6 | <1% | 10th |
| 14 | AJ Auxerre | 42.0 | <1% | 14th |
| 15 | Le Havre AC | 36.6 | <1% | 18th |
| 16 | Angers | 33.0 | <1% | 15th |
| 17 | Le Mans | 31.2 | <1% | 17th |
| 18 | Troyes | 29.9 | <1% | 16th |
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FAQ
Who will win the Ligue 1 2026/27?
Our simulations make Paris Saint-Germain favourites at 85%, ahead of Lille (4%) and Lyon (3%). Even at 85%, the favourite misses out about 15% of the time.
Who will finish in the top four?
Highest top-four chances: Paris Saint-Germain 99%, Lille 55%, Lyon 51%, Marseille 44%.
How is the predicted table calculated?
We play the rest of the season 10,000 times with the goal model behind our match forecasts, adding random noise to every club’s ratings in each run, and count how often each club finishes in each position. Expected points are the average final total.
How accurate is the pre-season forecast?
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 19 Aug 2026). We started covering Ligue 1 after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. Its SHA-256 hash is public. When the season ends we publish how far each club finished from its predicted position, misses included.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling