Como 1–0 Venezia: our model backed Como (correct)
c461e6efb0d0Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Como win (74%). Final score 1–0.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 2-0, actual 1-0. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 52% chance; the match had 1 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 41% chance.
RPS for this match0.036Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 3 hours 51 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 1–0.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Como the pick at 74% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 2-0; the actual 1-0 had a 14.0% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.036, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Como a 74% chance of beating Venezia at Giuseppe Sinigaglia, with the draw at 18% and Venezia at 8%. The most likely score is 2-0 (15%). High confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Como | Draw | Venezia | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 74.2% | 18.0% | 7.8% | 2-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 74.2% | 18.0% | 7.8% | 2-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Como4th · 23 pts from 10 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 0–2 v Frosinone (away), 20 Sep
- Drew 0–0 v AS Roma (home), 11 Oct
- Won 3–1 v Fiorentina (away), 18 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Sassuolo (home), 24 Oct
- Won 3–1 v Torino (away), 27 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 2–3 v Feyenoord Rotterdam (away), 14 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 3–1 v Fiorentina (away), 18 Oct, Serie A
- Won 4–1 v Manchester United (home), 21 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 2–0 v Sassuolo (home), 24 Oct, Serie A
- Won 3–1 v Torino (away), 27 Oct, Serie A
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Serie A v Torino, 27 Oct
Venezia20th · 3 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 0–2 v Lazio (home), 19 Sep
- Lost 1–3 v Atalanta (away), 12 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Napoli (home), 17 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Genoa (away), 25 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Internazionale (home), 28 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Serie A v Internazionale, 28 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings in all competitions, latest first. Cup scores include extra time. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2025 | Como | 1 – 1 | Venezia |
| 8 Dec 2024 | Venezia | 2 – 2 | Como |
| 3 Mar 2024Italian Serie B | Como | 2 – 1 | Venezia |
| 20 Aug 2023Italian Serie B | Venezia | 3 – 0 | Como |
| 1 Apr 2023Italian Serie B | Venezia | 3 – 2 | Como |
FAQ
What was the result of Como vs Venezia?
Como 1–0 Venezia after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Como vs Venezia correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Como the pick at 74%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 2-0 (15%). The actual 1-0 had a 14.0% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.036.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 07:39 UTC with sha256 c461e6efb0d0 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling