Lazio 2–1 Cagliari: our model backed Lazio (correct)
5c1f0f6ea7e6Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Lazio win (62%). Final score 2–1.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-0, actual 2-1. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 47% chance; the match had 3 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 47% chance.
RPS for this match0.085Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 6 hours 21 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Lazio the pick at 62% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-0; the actual 2-1 had a 10.5% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.085, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Lazio a 62% chance of beating Cagliari at Olimpico, with the draw at 23% and Cagliari at 15%. The most likely score is 1-0 (14%). Medium confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Lazio | Draw | Cagliari | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 61.6% | 23.4% | 15.0% | 1-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 61.6% | 23.4% | 15.0% | 1-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Lazio1st · 28 pts from 10 · 5 days' rest
- Won 2–0 v Venezia (away), 19 Sep
- Won 3–1 v Monza (home), 11 Oct
- Won 3–0 v Juventus (away), 18 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Parma (home), 24 Oct
- Won 6–2 v Sassuolo (away), 27 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Serie A v Sassuolo, 27 Oct
Cagliari12th · 13 pts from 10 · 5 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v Udinese (away), 19 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v Juventus (home), 11 Oct
- Lost 0–4 v Monza (away), 19 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Bologna (home), 24 Oct
- Lost 2–4 v AS Roma (away), 27 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Serie A v AS Roma, 27 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | Cagliari | 0 – 0 | Lazio |
| 3 Nov 2025 | Lazio | 2 – 0 | Cagliari |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Cagliari | 1 – 2 | Lazio |
| 4 Nov 2024 | Lazio | 2 – 1 | Cagliari |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Cagliari | 1 – 3 | Lazio |
FAQ
What was the result of Lazio vs Cagliari?
Lazio 2–1 Cagliari after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Lazio vs Cagliari correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Lazio the pick at 62%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-0 (14%). The actual 2-1 had a 10.5% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.085.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 07:39 UTC with sha256 5c1f0f6ea7e6 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling