Lecce 1–2 Genoa: our model backed Genoa (correct)
a9f8a84b19bcPrediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Genoa win (38%). Final score 1–2.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 0-1, actual 1-2. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 34% chance; the match had 3 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 40% chance.
RPS for this match0.241Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 9 hours 21 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 1–2.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Genoa the pick at 38% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 0-1; the actual 1-2 had a 7.2% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.241, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes Genoa favourites at 38% away to Lecce, with the draw at 30% and a Lecce win at 32%. The most likely score is 0-1 (14%). Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Lecce | Draw | Genoa | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 32.0% | 29.6% | 38.4% | 0-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 32.0% | 29.6% | 38.4% | 0-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Lecce14th · 9 pts from 10 · 3 days' rest
- Lost 0–3 v AC Milan (away), 20 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Bologna (home), 11 Oct
- Won 3–0 v Udinese (away), 18 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Juventus (home), 25 Oct
- Lost 1–5 v Frosinone (away), 29 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Serie A v Frosinone, 29 Oct
Genoa11th · 13 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 1–2 v Parma (away), 20 Sep
- Won 2–1 v Fiorentina (home), 10 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v AS Roma (away), 17 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Venezia (home), 25 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Juventus (home), 28 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Serie A v Juventus, 28 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | Lecce | 1 – 0 | Genoa |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Genoa | 0 – 0 | Lecce |
| 14 Mar 2025 | Genoa | 2 – 1 | Lecce |
| 5 Jan 2025 | Lecce | 0 – 0 | Genoa |
| 28 Jan 2024 | Genoa | 2 – 1 | Lecce |
FAQ
What was the result of Lecce vs Genoa?
Lecce 1–2 Genoa after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Lecce vs Genoa correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Genoa the pick at 38%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 0-1 (14%). The actual 1-2 had a 7.2% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.241.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 07:39 UTC with sha256 a9f8a84b19bc and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling