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Juventus 2–0 Napoli: our model backed Juventus (correct)

Juventus
Serie AFull time · 90 minutes2–0Allianz Stadium, Torino
Napoli
CorrectLocked a76310943042

Prediction outcome

Result pick correct

We predicted Juventus win (37%). Final score 2–0.

Exact score not matched

Most likely score 1-1, actual 2-0. The most likely Juventus win is 1-0 (12%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.

Over 2.5 goals: no

We gave over 2.5 a 40% chance; the match had 2 goals.

Both teams scored: no

We gave both teams to score a 47% chance.

RPS for this match0.253Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record

Original forecast

Locked before kickoff ·
Juventus37%Pick · Home win
Draw29%Draw
Napoli34%Away win

90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.

Predicted most likely score1 – 1
Actual result2 – 0

Timeline

  1. Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 12 hours 6 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
  2. Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–0.
  3. Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.

What happened vs what we expected

We made Juventus the pick at 37% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 2-0 had a 7.0% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.253, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).

Generated automatically from the graded result and the locked forecast · graded

Pre-match analysis (unchanged)

Our model gives Juventus a 37% chance of beating Napoli at Allianz Stadium, with the draw at 29% and Napoli at 34%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Juventus win is 1-0. Low confidence.

Model panel

ModelJuventusDrawNapoliLikely score
Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles37.5%28.5%34.0%1-1
Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model37.5%28.5%34.0%1-1

Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.

How we grade each model

Recent form

Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.

Juventus7th · 17 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest

  1. Won 2–0 v Atalanta (home), 20 Sep
  2. Drew 1–1 v Cagliari (away), 11 Oct
  3. Lost 0–3 v Lazio (home), 18 Oct
  4. Won 2–0 v Lecce (away), 25 Oct
  5. Lost 0–2 v Genoa (away), 28 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Won 2–1 v Celta Vigo (away), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
  2. Lost 0–3 v Lazio (home), 18 Oct, Serie A
  3. Drew 2–2 v Stade Rennais (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
  4. Won 2–0 v Lecce (away), 25 Oct, Serie A
  5. Lost 0–2 v Genoa (away), 28 Oct, Serie A

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Serie A v Genoa, 28 Oct

Napoli8th · 14 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest

  1. Drew 1–1 v Fiorentina (away), 20 Sep
  2. Won 3–0 v Frosinone (home), 10 Oct
  3. Lost 0–1 v Venezia (away), 17 Oct
  4. Drew 3–3 v AS Roma (home), 24 Oct
  5. Won 4–1 v Monza (away), 28 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Lost 1–3 v Villarreal (away), 13 Oct, UEFA Champions League
  2. Lost 0–1 v Venezia (away), 17 Oct, Serie A
  3. Won 4–3 v Bodo/Glimt (home), 20 Oct, UEFA Champions League
  4. Drew 3–3 v AS Roma (home), 24 Oct, Serie A
  5. Won 4–1 v Monza (away), 28 Oct, Serie A

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Serie A v Monza, 28 Oct

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.

DateHomeScoreAway
25 Jan 2026Juventus3 – 0Napoli
7 Dec 2025Napoli2 – 1Juventus
25 Jan 2025Napoli2 – 1Juventus
21 Sep 2024Juventus0 – 0Napoli
3 Mar 2024Napoli2 – 1Juventus
Full head-to-head record

FAQ

What was the result of Juventus vs Napoli?

Juventus 2–0 Napoli after 90 minutes.

Did the AI predict Juventus vs Napoli correctly?

Yes. Our locked forecast made Juventus the pick at 37%.

What score did the model expect?

The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 2-0 had a 7.0% chance in the same grid.

How is this forecast graded?

On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.253.

Was the forecast changed after kickoff?

No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 07:39 UTC with sha256 a76310943042 and is published in our public ledger.

For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling