Bayern Munich 2–2 Borussia Dortmund: our model backed Bayern Munich (missed)
a5b6930addcbPrediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Bayern Munich win (62%). Final score 2–2.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 2-2. The most likely Bayern Munich win is 2-1 (9%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 72% chance; the match had 4 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 67% chance.
RPS for this match0.205Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 1 hour 5 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–2.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Bayern Munich the pick at 62% to win. It went the other way: a draw. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 2-2 had a 6.6% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.205, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Bayern Munich a 62% chance of beating Borussia Dortmund at Allianz Arena, with the draw at 21% and Borussia Dortmund at 17%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (9%); the most likely Bayern Munich win is 2-1. Medium confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Bayern Munich | Draw | Borussia Dortmund | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 61.7% | 21.5% | 16.8% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 61.7% | 21.5% | 16.8% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Bayern Munich1st · 18 pts from 8 · 3 days' rest
- Won 2–1 v SV Elversberg (away), 13 Sep
- Won 7–0 v Union Berlin (home), 18 Sep
- Drew 2–2 v FC Augsburg (away), 10 Oct
- Won 6–1 v RB Leipzig (home), 17 Oct
- Won 3–1 v SC Freiburg (away), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Drew 3–3 v Viking FK (away), 13 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 6–1 v RB Leipzig (home), 17 Oct, Bundesliga
- Drew 2–2 v Arsenal (home), 21 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 3–1 v SC Freiburg (away), 25 Oct, Bundesliga
- Won 6–1 v 1. FC Magdeburg (home), 28 Oct, German Cup
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from German Cup v 1. FC Magdeburg, 28 Oct
Borussia Dortmund2nd · 18 pts from 8 · 4 days' rest
- Won 3–0 v SC Paderborn (home), 12 Sep
- Won 1–0 v VfB Stuttgart (away), 19 Sep
- Drew 2–2 v Werder Bremen (home), 9 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Union Berlin (away), 17 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Eintracht Frankfurt (home), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–1 v Bodo/Glimt (away), 14 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Drew 0–0 v Union Berlin (away), 17 Oct, Bundesliga
- Won 2–1 v Sabah FK (away), 20 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 1–0 v Eintracht Frankfurt (home), 24 Oct, Bundesliga
- Won 3–2 v Werder Bremen (home), 27 Oct, German Cup
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from German Cup v Werder Bremen, 27 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings in all competitions, latest first. Cup scores include extra time. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026German SuperCup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 – 2 | Bayern Munich |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 – 3 | Bayern Munich |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Bayern Munich | 2 – 1 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Bayern Munich | 2 – 2 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 30 Nov 2024 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 – 1 | Bayern Munich |
FAQ
What was the result of Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bayern Munich 2–2 Borussia Dortmund after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Bayern Munich the pick at 62%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (9%). The actual 2-2 had a 6.6% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.205.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 31 Oct 2026 16:24 UTC with sha256 a5b6930addcb and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling