Aston Villa 1–1 Fulham: our model backed Aston Villa (missed)
beb0a2f95251Prediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Aston Villa win (51%). Final score 1–1.
Exact score matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 1-1. The most likely Aston Villa win is 1-0 (11%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 50% chance; the match had 2 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 53% chance.
RPS for this match0.155Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 3 hours 35 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 1–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Aston Villa the pick at 51% to win. It went the other way: a draw. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 1-1 had a 12.7% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.155, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Aston Villa a 51% chance of beating Fulham at Villa Park, with the draw at 27% and Fulham at 22%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Aston Villa win is 1-0. Medium confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Aston Villa | Draw | Fulham | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 50.8% | 26.6% | 22.6% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 50.8% | 26.6% | 22.6% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Aston Villa10th · 12 pts from 9 · 3 days' rest
- Lost 1–2 v Nottingham Forest (home), 12 Sep
- Won 3–2 v Tottenham Hotspur (away), 19 Sep
- Drew 2–2 v Brentford (home), 10 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Newcastle United (away), 17 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Manchester City (home), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 6–0 v Fenerbahçe (home), 14 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 1–0 v Newcastle United (away), 17 Oct, Premier League
- Won 3–1 v Viking FK (home), 21 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 2–1 v Manchester City (home), 24 Oct, Premier League
- Lost 0–3 v Bournemouth (away), 28 Oct, Carabao Cup
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Carabao Cup v Bournemouth, 28 Oct
Fulham15th · 9 pts from 9 · 3 days' rest
- Drew 0–0 v Liverpool (away), 12 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v Manchester United (home), 20 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Ipswich Town (away), 10 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Hull City (home), 17 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Coventry City (away), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Drew 1–1 v Manchester United (home), 20 Sep, Premier League
- Lost 1–2 v Ipswich Town (away), 10 Oct, Premier League
- Won 1–0 v Hull City (home), 17 Oct, Premier League
- Won 1–0 v Coventry City (away), 24 Oct, Premier League
- Lost 0–1 v Crystal Palace (home), 28 Oct, Carabao Cup
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Carabao Cup v Crystal Palace, 28 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Fulham | 1 – 0 | Aston Villa |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Aston Villa | 3 – 1 | Fulham |
| 3 May 2025 | Aston Villa | 1 – 0 | Fulham |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Fulham | 1 – 3 | Aston Villa |
| 17 Feb 2024 | Fulham | 1 – 2 | Aston Villa |
FAQ
What was the result of Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Aston Villa 1–1 Fulham after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Aston Villa vs Fulham correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Aston Villa the pick at 51%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 1-1 had a 12.7% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.155.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 31 Oct 2026 16:24 UTC with sha256 beb0a2f95251 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling