Tottenham Hotspur 2–0 Crystal Palace: our model backed Tottenham Hotspur (correct)
ec9465798c9bPrediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Tottenham Hotspur win (44%). Final score 2–0.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 2-0. The most likely Tottenham Hotspur win is 2-1 (9%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 54% chance; the match had 2 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 58% chance.
RPS for this match0.197Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 1 hour 5 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–0.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Tottenham Hotspur the pick at 44% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 2-0 had a 7.4% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.197, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Tottenham Hotspur a 44% chance of beating Crystal Palace at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with the draw at 27% and Crystal Palace at 29%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Tottenham Hotspur win is 2-1. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Tottenham Hotspur | Draw | Crystal Palace | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 44.1% | 27.2% | 28.7% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 44.1% | 27.2% | 28.7% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Tottenham Hotspur9th · 12 pts from 9 · 7 days' rest
- Drew 0–0 v Everton (home), 12 Sep
- Lost 2–3 v Aston Villa (home), 19 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v Manchester United (away), 10 Oct
- Won 3–1 v Coventry City (home), 19 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Chelsea (away), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 1–3 v Liverpool (away), 15 Sep, Carabao Cup
- Lost 2–3 v Aston Villa (home), 19 Sep, Premier League
- Drew 1–1 v Manchester United (away), 10 Oct, Premier League
- Won 3–1 v Coventry City (home), 19 Oct, Premier League
- Won 2–0 v Chelsea (away), 24 Oct, Premier League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Premier League v Chelsea, 24 Oct
Crystal Palace18th · 7 pts from 9 · 3 days' rest
- Lost 2–3 v Ipswich Town (home), 12 Sep
- Drew 0–0 v Leeds United (away), 20 Sep
- Won 3–1 v Nottingham Forest (home), 11 Oct
- Lost 0–5 v Brighton (away), 18 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Newcastle United (home), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 2–3 v Lyon (away), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Lost 0–5 v Brighton (away), 18 Oct, Premier League
- Drew 2–2 v Beşiktaş (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Lost 0–2 v Newcastle United (home), 25 Oct, Premier League
- Won 1–0 v Fulham (away), 28 Oct, Carabao Cup
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Carabao Cup v Fulham, 28 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Mar 2026 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 – 3 | Crystal Palace |
| 28 Dec 2025 | Crystal Palace | 0 – 1 | Tottenham Hotspur |
| 11 May 2025 | Tottenham Hotspur | 0 – 2 | Crystal Palace |
| 27 Oct 2024 | Crystal Palace | 1 – 0 | Tottenham Hotspur |
| 2 Mar 2024 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 – 1 | Crystal Palace |
FAQ
What was the result of Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace?
Tottenham Hotspur 2–0 Crystal Palace after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Tottenham Hotspur the pick at 44%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 2-0 had a 7.4% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.197.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 31 Oct 2026 16:24 UTC with sha256 ec9465798c9b and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling