Barcelona 6–1 Alavés: our model backed Barcelona (correct)
6217a778e6b2Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Barcelona win (80%). Final score 6–1.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 2-0, actual 6-1. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 71% chance; the match had 7 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 52% chance.
RPS for this match0.020Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 3 hours 35 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 6–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Barcelona the pick at 80% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 2-0; the actual 6-1 had a 1.7% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.020, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Barcelona a 80% chance of beating Alavés at Spotify Camp Nou, with the draw at 14% and Alavés at 6%. The most likely score is 2-0 (10%). High confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Barcelona | Draw | Alavés | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 80.6% | 13.8% | 5.6% | 2-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 80.6% | 13.8% | 5.6% | 2-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Barcelona1st · 30 pts from 11 · 6 days' rest
- Won 7–2 v Racing Santander (home), 16 Sep
- Won 3–1 v Sevilla (away), 19 Sep
- Won 3–0 v Getafe (home), 10 Oct
- Won 5–2 v Real Betis (away), 17 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Real Madrid (home), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 3–0 v Getafe (home), 10 Oct, La Liga
- Won 4–1 v Galatasaray (away), 13 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 5–2 v Real Betis (away), 17 Oct, La Liga
- Lost 2–4 v Paris Saint-Germain (away), 20 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Lost 1–2 v Real Madrid (home), 25 Oct, La Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from La Liga v Real Madrid, 25 Oct
Alavés11th · 12 pts from 11 · 8 days' rest
- Lost 0–1 v Valencia (home), 15 Sep
- Drew 0–0 v Athletic Club (away), 19 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Atlético Madrid (home), 10 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Celta Vigo (away), 18 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Málaga (home), 23 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from La Liga v Málaga, 23 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May 2026 | Alavés | 1 – 0 | Barcelona |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Barcelona | 3 – 1 | Alavés |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Barcelona | 1 – 0 | Alavés |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Alavés | 0 – 3 | Barcelona |
| 3 Feb 2024 | Alavés | 1 – 3 | Barcelona |
FAQ
What was the result of Barcelona vs Alavés?
Barcelona 6–1 Alavés after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Barcelona vs Alavés correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Barcelona the pick at 80%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 2-0 (10%). The actual 6-1 had a 1.7% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.020.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 31 Oct 2026 16:24 UTC with sha256 6217a778e6b2 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling