Porto 4–0 Estoril Praia: our model backed Porto (correct)
0bf037adb10aPrediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Porto win (79%). Final score 4–0.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 2-0, actual 4-0. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 61% chance; the match had 4 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 45% chance.
RPS for this match0.023Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 4 hours 5 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 4–0.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Porto the pick at 79% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 2-0; the actual 4-0 had a 6.5% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.023, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Porto a 79% chance of beating Estoril Praia at Estádio do Dragão, with the draw at 15% and Estoril Praia at 6%. The most likely score is 2-0 (14%). High confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Porto | Draw | Estoril Praia | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 79.3% | 14.5% | 6.2% | 2-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 79.3% | 14.5% | 6.2% | 2-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Porto1st · 30 pts from 10 · 3 days' rest
- Won 2–1 v Moreirense (home), 4 Sep
- Won 4–1 v Casa Pia (away), 12 Sep
- Won 3–1 v Benfica (home), 20 Sep
- Won 2–1 v Marítimo (away), 10 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Gil Vicente (away), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–1 v Marítimo (away), 10 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Lost 2–3 v Real Betis (away), 14 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Lost 0–1 v PSV Eindhoven (home), 20 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 1–0 v Gil Vicente (away), 24 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Won 1–0 v Académico de Viseu (home), 28 Oct, Taca da Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Taca da Liga v Académico de Viseu, 28 Oct
Estoril Praia18th · 2 pts from 10 · 6 days' rest
- Drew 0–0 v Arouca (home), 7 Sep
- Lost 0–1 v Braga (away), 14 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Casa Pia (home), 20 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Académico de Viseu (away), 10 Oct
- Lost 1–3 v Moreirense (home), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–1 v Braga (away), 14 Sep, Primeira Liga
- Lost 1–2 v Casa Pia (home), 20 Sep, Primeira Liga
- Lost 1–2 v Académico de Viseu (away), 10 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Drew 1–1 v Salgueiros (away), 18 Oct, Taca de Portugal, won 3–1 on penalties
- Lost 1–3 v Moreirense (home), 25 Oct, Primeira Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Primeira Liga v Moreirense, 25 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Estoril Praia | 1 – 3 | Porto |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Porto | 1 – 0 | Estoril Praia |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Estoril Praia | 1 – 2 | Porto |
| 3 Nov 2024 | Porto | 4 – 0 | Estoril Praia |
| 30 Mar 2024 | Estoril Praia | 1 – 0 | Porto |
FAQ
What was the result of Porto vs Estoril Praia?
Porto 4–0 Estoril Praia after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Porto vs Estoril Praia correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Porto the pick at 79%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 2-0 (14%). The actual 4-0 had a 6.5% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.023.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 31 Oct 2026 16:24 UTC with sha256 0bf037adb10a and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling