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Union Berlin 1–1 1. FC Köln: our model backed Union Berlin (missed)

Union Berlin
BundesligaFull time · 90 minutes1–1Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
1. FC Köln
MissedLocked 76fba61b27cc

Prediction outcome

Result pick missed

We predicted Union Berlin win (46%). Final score 1–1.

Exact score matched

Most likely score 1-1, actual 1-1. The most likely Union Berlin win is 1-0 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.

Over 2.5 goals: no

We gave over 2.5 a 50% chance; the match had 2 goals.

Both teams scored: yes

We gave both teams to score a 55% chance.

RPS for this match0.142Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record

Original forecast

Locked before kickoff ·
Union Berlin46%Pick · Home win
Draw27%Draw
1. FC Köln27%Away win

90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.

Predicted most likely score1 – 1
Actual result1 – 1

Timeline

  1. Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 22 hours 5 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
  2. Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 1–1.
  3. Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.

What happened vs what we expected

We made Union Berlin the pick at 46% to win. It went the other way: a draw. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 1-1 had a 13.0% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.142, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).

Generated automatically from the graded result and the locked forecast · graded

Pre-match analysis (unchanged)

Our model gives Union Berlin a 46% chance of beating 1. FC Köln at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, with the draw at 27% and 1. FC Köln at 27%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Union Berlin win is 1-0. Low confidence.

Model panel

ModelUnion BerlinDraw1. FC KölnLikely score
Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles46.2%27.2%26.6%1-1
Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model46.2%27.2%26.6%1-1

Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.

How we grade each model

Recent form

Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.

Union Berlin16th · 7 pts from 8 · 5 days' rest

  1. Lost 1–3 v Schalke 04 (home), 11 Sep
  2. Lost 0–7 v Bayern Munich (away), 18 Sep
  3. Won 1–0 v SV Elversberg (home), 10 Oct
  4. Drew 0–0 v Borussia Dortmund (home), 17 Oct
  5. Drew 1–1 v FC Augsburg (away), 24 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Lost 0–7 v Bayern Munich (away), 18 Sep, Bundesliga
  2. Won 1–0 v SV Elversberg (home), 10 Oct, Bundesliga
  3. Drew 0–0 v Borussia Dortmund (home), 17 Oct, Bundesliga
  4. Drew 1–1 v FC Augsburg (away), 24 Oct, Bundesliga
  5. Lost 0–5 v 1. FC Köln (away), 27 Oct, German Cup

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from German Cup v 1. FC Köln, 27 Oct

1. FC Köln13th · 9 pts from 8 · 5 days' rest

  1. Drew 1–1 v Werder Bremen (home), 12 Sep
  2. Lost 1–2 v Hamburger SV (away), 19 Sep
  3. Won 2–1 v Borussia Mönchengladbach (home), 11 Oct
  4. Lost 0–1 v Eintracht Frankfurt (away), 16 Oct
  5. Drew 0–0 v Schalke 04 (home), 24 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Lost 1–2 v Hamburger SV (away), 19 Sep, Bundesliga
  2. Won 2–1 v Borussia Mönchengladbach (home), 11 Oct, Bundesliga
  3. Lost 0–1 v Eintracht Frankfurt (away), 16 Oct, Bundesliga
  4. Drew 0–0 v Schalke 04 (home), 24 Oct, Bundesliga
  5. Won 5–0 v Union Berlin (home), 27 Oct, German Cup

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from German Cup v Union Berlin, 27 Oct

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings in all competitions, latest first. Cup scores include extra time. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.

DateHomeScoreAway
27 Oct 2026German Cup1. FC Köln5 – 0Union Berlin
2 May 2026Union Berlin2 – 21. FC Köln
20 Dec 20251. FC Köln0 – 1Union Berlin
11 May 20241. FC Köln3 – 2Union Berlin
20 Dec 2023Union Berlin2 – 01. FC Köln
Full head-to-head record

FAQ

What was the result of Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?

Union Berlin 1–1 1. FC Köln after 90 minutes.

Did the AI predict Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln correctly?

No. Our locked forecast made Union Berlin the pick at 46%.

What score did the model expect?

The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 1-1 had a 13.0% chance in the same grid.

How is this forecast graded?

On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.142.

Was the forecast changed after kickoff?

No. It was locked at 31 Oct 2026 16:24 UTC with sha256 76fba61b27cc and is published in our public ledger.

For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling