Eintracht Frankfurt 3–1 Hamburger SV: AI backed Eintracht Frankfurt (correct)
56e131a75856Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Eintracht Frankfurt win (57%). Final score 3–1.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 3-1. The most likely Eintracht Frankfurt win is 2-1 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 61% chance; the match had 4 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 60% chance.
RPS for this match0.109Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 24 hours before kickoff.
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 3–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Eintracht Frankfurt the pick at 57% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 3-1 had a 6.7% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.109, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 57% chance of beating Hamburger SV at Deutsche Bank Park, with the draw at 24% and Hamburger SV at 19%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%); the most likely Eintracht Frankfurt win is 2-1. Medium confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Eintracht Frankfurt | Draw | Hamburger SV | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 57.3% | 23.7% | 19.0% | 1-1 |
| ClaudeAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 55.0% | 25.0% | 20.0% | 2-1 |
| CodexAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 57.0% | 24.0% | 19.0% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 57.3% | 23.7% | 19.0% | 1-1 |
Both AI analysts pick the same result as the model. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Eintracht Frankfurt8th · 11 pts from 8 · 5 days' rest
- Won 3–1 v Mainz 05 (away), 12 Sep
- Drew 2–2 v SC Freiburg (home), 19 Sep
- Lost 0–6 v RB Leipzig (away), 10 Oct
- Won 1–0 v 1. FC Köln (home), 16 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Borussia Dortmund (away), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Drew 2–2 v SC Freiburg (home), 19 Sep, Bundesliga
- Lost 0–6 v RB Leipzig (away), 10 Oct, Bundesliga
- Won 1–0 v 1. FC Köln (home), 16 Oct, Bundesliga
- Lost 0–1 v Borussia Dortmund (away), 24 Oct, Bundesliga
- Won 3–1 v Hamburger SV (away), 27 Oct, German Cup
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from German Cup v Hamburger SV, 27 Oct
Hamburger SV15th · 9 pts from 8 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 0–5 v RB Leipzig (away), 13 Sep
- Won 2–1 v 1. FC Köln (home), 19 Sep
- Won 3–2 v TSG Hoffenheim (away), 10 Oct
- Won 1–0 v VfB Stuttgart (home), 17 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v SC Paderborn (away), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–1 v 1. FC Köln (home), 19 Sep, Bundesliga
- Won 3–2 v TSG Hoffenheim (away), 10 Oct, Bundesliga
- Won 1–0 v VfB Stuttgart (home), 17 Oct, Bundesliga
- Lost 0–1 v SC Paderborn (away), 24 Oct, Bundesliga
- Lost 1–3 v Eintracht Frankfurt (home), 27 Oct, German Cup
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from German Cup v Eintracht Frankfurt, 27 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings in all competitions, latest first. Cup scores include extra time. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026German Cup | Hamburger SV | 1 – 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2 May 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 – 2 | Hamburger SV |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Hamburger SV | 1 – 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
FAQ
What was the result of Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV?
Eintracht Frankfurt 3–1 Hamburger SV after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Eintracht Frankfurt the pick at 57%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (11%). The actual 3-1 had a 6.7% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.109.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 31 Oct 2026 17:05 UTC with sha256 56e131a75856 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling