Fenerbahçe 3–2 Liverpool: our model backed Liverpool (missed)
89d115cd8420Prediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Liverpool win (56%). Final score 3–2.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 3-2. The most likely Liverpool win is 1-2 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 59% chance; the match had 5 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 59% chance.
RPS for this match0.462Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Calibration warning. The Champions League failed our calibration check before it was added. In back-tests on the 2022–23 to 2025–26 seasons (628 matches), when the result we rated most likely had 55–65%, it came in 70% of the time, against 60% forecast. In these matches the model is too cautious, so its pick is probably more likely than shown. We publish it unchanged (model v1.3-2026-11) and are tracking live results before recalibrating. Live track record
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 16 hours 11 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 3–2.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Liverpool the pick at 56% to win. It went the other way: Fenerbahçe won. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 3-2 had a 2.1% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.462, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes Liverpool favourites at 56% away to Fenerbahçe, with the draw at 23% and a Fenerbahçe win at 21%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%); the most likely Liverpool win is 1-2. Medium confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Fenerbahçe | Draw | Liverpool | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 21.6% | 22.8% | 55.6% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 21.6% | 22.8% | 55.6% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Fenerbahçe6th · 16 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest
- Won 8–0 v Eyüpspor (home), 20 Sep
- Won 3–0 v Caykur Rizespor (away), 10 Oct
- Won 3–0 v Alanyaspor (home), 17 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Galatasaray (away), 26 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Göztepe (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–6 v Aston Villa (away), 14 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 3–0 v Alanyaspor (home), 17 Oct, Süper Lig
- Drew 2–2 v Slavia Prague (home), 20 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Lost 1–2 v Galatasaray (away), 26 Oct, Süper Lig
- Lost 1–2 v Göztepe (home), 31 Oct, Süper Lig
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Süper Lig v Göztepe, 31 Oct
Liverpool5th · 15 pts from 9 · 3 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v Bournemouth (away), 20 Sep
- Lost 0–3 v Manchester City (home), 11 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Brentford (away), 17 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Brighton (home), 25 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Arsenal (home), 1 Nov
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–1 v Brentford (away), 17 Oct, Premier League
- Won 4–3 v Villarreal (home), 20 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 2–0 v Brighton (home), 25 Oct, Premier League
- Drew 1–1 v Chelsea (home), 28 Oct, Carabao Cup, won 6–5 on penalties
- Lost 0–1 v Arsenal (home), 1 Nov, Premier League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Premier League v Arsenal, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
FAQ
What was the result of Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool?
Fenerbahçe 3–2 Liverpool after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Liverpool the pick at 56%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (10%). The actual 3-2 had a 2.1% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.462.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 01:33 UTC with sha256 89d115cd8420 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling