Birmingham City 3–0 Millwall: our model backed Birmingham City (correct)
ac8aad99c670Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Birmingham City win (39%). Final score 3–0.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 3-0. The most likely Birmingham City win is 1-0 (11%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 42% chance; the match had 3 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 49% chance.
RPS for this match0.237Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 48 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 3–0.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Birmingham City the pick at 39% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 3-0 had a 3.3% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.237, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Birmingham City a 39% chance of beating Millwall at St. Andrew's Stadium, with the draw at 29% and Millwall at 32%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (14%); the most likely Birmingham City win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Birmingham City | Draw | Millwall | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 39.0% | 29.0% | 32.0% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 39.0% | 29.0% | 32.0% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Birmingham City3rd · 26 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v West Bromwich Albion (away), 10 Oct
- Won 4–0 v Preston North End (home), 13 Oct
- Won 3–0 v Queens Park Rangers (home), 17 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Cardiff City (away), 24 Oct
- Won 3–1 v Lincoln City (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Lincoln City, 31 Oct
Millwall13th · 18 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v Preston North End (away), 10 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Swansea City (home), 13 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v Lincoln City (home), 17 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Portsmouth (away), 24 Oct
- Won 4–1 v Derby County (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Derby County, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2026 | Millwall | 3 – 0 | Birmingham City |
| 4 Nov 2025 | Birmingham City | 4 – 0 | Millwall |
| 9 Mar 2024 | Millwall | 1 – 0 | Birmingham City |
| 2 Sep 2023 | Birmingham City | 1 – 1 | Millwall |
| 18 Apr 2023 | Millwall | 0 – 1 | Birmingham City |
FAQ
What was the result of Birmingham City vs Millwall?
Birmingham City 3–0 Millwall after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Birmingham City vs Millwall correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Birmingham City the pick at 39%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (14%). The actual 3-0 had a 3.3% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.237.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 3 Nov 2026 02:11 UTC with sha256 ac8aad99c670 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling