Preston North End 2–3 Sheffield United: our model backed Sheffield United (correct)
c741f42db7f3Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Sheffield United win (44%). Final score 2–3.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 2-3. The most likely Sheffield United win is 0-1 (11%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 46% chance; the match had 5 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 52% chance.
RPS for this match0.196Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 33 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–3.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Sheffield United the pick at 44% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 2-3 had a 2.4% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.196, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes Sheffield United favourites at 44% away to Preston North End, with the draw at 28% and a Preston North End win at 28%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Sheffield United win is 0-1. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Preston North End | Draw | Sheffield United | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 28.0% | 28.1% | 43.9% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 28.0% | 28.1% | 43.9% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Preston North End24th · 5 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Lost 0–1 v Millwall (home), 10 Oct
- Lost 0–4 v Birmingham City (away), 13 Oct
- Lost 1–4 v Wrexham (away), 17 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v West Bromwich Albion (home), 24 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Stoke City (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Stoke City, 31 Oct
Sheffield United9th · 22 pts from 14 · 4 days' rest
- Won 3–0 v Lincoln City (home), 10 Oct
- Lost 2–3 v Portsmouth (away), 14 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Bristol City (away), 17 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Derby County (home), 24 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Wrexham (home), 30 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Wrexham, 30 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Sheffield United | 2 – 3 | Preston North End |
| 24 Oct 2025 | Preston North End | 3 – 2 | Sheffield United |
| 8 Mar 2025 | Sheffield United | 1 – 0 | Preston North End |
| 9 Aug 2024 | Preston North End | 0 – 2 | Sheffield United |
| 29 Apr 2023 | Sheffield United | 4 – 1 | Preston North End |
FAQ
What was the result of Preston North End vs Sheffield United?
Preston North End 2–3 Sheffield United after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Preston North End vs Sheffield United correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Sheffield United the pick at 44%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 2-3 had a 2.4% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.196.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 3 Nov 2026 02:11 UTC with sha256 c741f42db7f3 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling