Queens Park Rangers 1–1 Burnley: our model backed Burnley (missed)
ccf85ea2570bPrediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Burnley win (39%). Final score 1–1.
Exact score matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 1-1. The most likely Burnley win is 0-1 (9%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 48% chance; the match had 2 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 54% chance.
RPS for this match0.129Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 33 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 1–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Burnley the pick at 39% to win. It went the other way: a draw. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 1-1 had a 13.5% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.129, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes Burnley favourites at 39% away to Queens Park Rangers, with the draw at 28% and a Queens Park Rangers win at 33%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Burnley win is 0-1. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Queens Park Rangers | Draw | Burnley | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 32.8% | 28.3% | 38.9% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 32.8% | 28.3% | 38.9% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Queens Park Rangers11th · 21 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v West Ham United (away), 9 Oct
- Won 4–1 v Derby County (home), 14 Oct
- Lost 0–3 v Birmingham City (away), 17 Oct
- Won 5–0 v Swansea City (home), 24 Oct
- Lost 1–4 v Southampton (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Southampton, 31 Oct
Burnley22nd · 10 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Won 4–0 v Watford (away), 10 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v Charlton Athletic (home), 13 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Wolverhampton Wanderers (home), 16 Oct
- Lost 1–4 v Lincoln City (away), 24 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Portsmouth (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Portsmouth, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2025 | Queens Park Rangers | 0 – 5 | Burnley |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Burnley | 0 – 0 | Queens Park Rangers |
| 22 Apr 2023 | Burnley | 1 – 2 | Queens Park Rangers |
| 11 Dec 2022 | Queens Park Rangers | 0 – 3 | Burnley |
FAQ
What was the result of Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley?
Queens Park Rangers 1–1 Burnley after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Burnley the pick at 39%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 1-1 had a 13.5% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.129.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 3 Nov 2026 02:11 UTC with sha256 ccf85ea2570b and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling