West Bromwich Albion 1–1 Southampton: our model backed Southampton (missed)
45d2d7cb455aPrediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Southampton win (41%). Final score 1–1.
Exact score matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 1-1. The most likely Southampton win is 0-1 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 47% chance; the match had 2 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 53% chance.
RPS for this match0.132Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 48 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 1–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Southampton the pick at 41% to win. It went the other way: a draw. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 1-1 had a 13.5% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.132, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes Southampton favourites at 41% away to West Bromwich Albion, with the draw at 28% and a West Bromwich Albion win at 31%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Southampton win is 0-1. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | West Bromwich Albion | Draw | Southampton | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 30.5% | 28.3% | 41.2% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 30.5% | 28.3% | 41.2% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
West Bromwich Albion6th · 25 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Lost 0–1 v Birmingham City (home), 10 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Wrexham (away), 13 Oct
- Won 3–2 v Blackburn Rovers (home), 17 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Preston North End (away), 24 Oct
- Won 3–1 v West Ham United (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v West Ham United, 31 Oct
Southampton7th · 24 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v Portsmouth (home), 11 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Norwich City (away), 14 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Bolton Wanderers (home), 17 Oct
- Won 3–2 v West Ham United (away), 24 Oct
- Won 4–1 v Queens Park Rangers (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Queens Park Rangers, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar 2026 | West Bromwich Albion | 1 – 1 | Southampton |
| 9 Dec 2025 | Southampton | 3 – 2 | West Bromwich Albion |
| 17 May 2024 | Southampton | 3 – 1 | West Bromwich Albion |
| 12 May 2024 | West Bromwich Albion | 0 – 0 | Southampton |
| 16 Feb 2024 | West Bromwich Albion | 0 – 2 | Southampton |
FAQ
What was the result of West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton?
West Bromwich Albion 1–1 Southampton after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Southampton the pick at 41%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 1-1 had a 13.5% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.132.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 3 Nov 2026 02:11 UTC with sha256 45d2d7cb455a and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling