Watford 1–0 Lincoln City: our model backed Watford (correct)
684279d7e545Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Watford win (46%). Final score 1–0.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 1-0. The most likely Watford win is 1-0 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 49% chance; the match had 1 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 53% chance.
RPS for this match0.180Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 33 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 1–0.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Watford the pick at 46% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 1-0 had a 10.1% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.180, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Watford a 46% chance of beating Lincoln City at Vicarage Road, with the draw at 28% and Lincoln City at 26%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Watford win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Watford | Draw | Lincoln City | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 46.2% | 27.5% | 26.3% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 46.2% | 27.5% | 26.3% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Watford20th · 14 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Lost 0–4 v Burnley (home), 10 Oct
- Lost 1–5 v Cardiff City (away), 13 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Charlton Athletic (home), 17 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Wolverhampton Wanderers (away), 24 Oct
- Lost 2–3 v Norwich City (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Norwich City, 31 Oct
Lincoln City19th · 15 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Lost 0–3 v Sheffield United (away), 10 Oct
- Lost 0–6 v West Ham United (home), 14 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v Millwall (away), 17 Oct
- Won 4–1 v Burnley (home), 24 Oct
- Lost 1–3 v Birmingham City (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Birmingham City, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
FAQ
What was the result of Watford vs Lincoln City?
Watford 1–0 Lincoln City after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Watford vs Lincoln City correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Watford the pick at 46%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 1-0 had a 10.1% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.180.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 3 Nov 2026 02:11 UTC with sha256 684279d7e545 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling