Blackburn Rovers 1–2 Stoke City: our model backed Blackburn Rovers (missed)
678f6fd0c1f1Prediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Blackburn Rovers win (41%). Final score 1–2.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 1-2. The most likely Blackburn Rovers win is 1-0 (13%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 39% chance; the match had 3 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 45% chance.
RPS for this match0.329Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 33 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 1–2.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Blackburn Rovers the pick at 41% to win. It went the other way: Stoke City won. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 1-2 had a 6.7% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.329, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Blackburn Rovers a 41% chance of beating Stoke City at Ewood Park, with the draw at 29% and Stoke City at 30%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (14%); the most likely Blackburn Rovers win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Blackburn Rovers | Draw | Stoke City | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 40.8% | 29.3% | 29.9% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 40.8% | 29.3% | 29.9% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Blackburn Rovers14th · 18 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Won 2–1 v Cardiff City (home), 10 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Bristol City (away), 13 Oct
- Lost 2–3 v West Bromwich Albion (away), 17 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Wrexham (home), 24 Oct
- Lost 0–4 v Swansea City (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Swansea City, 31 Oct
Stoke City4th · 26 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Won 2–1 v Bolton Wanderers (away), 10 Oct
- Lost 2–3 v Middlesbrough (home), 13 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Derby County (away), 17 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Bristol City (home), 24 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Preston North End (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Preston North End, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | Stoke City | 1 – 1 | Blackburn Rovers |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Blackburn Rovers | 1 – 1 | Stoke City |
| 12 Mar 2025 | Stoke City | 1 – 0 | Blackburn Rovers |
| 6 Nov 2024 | Blackburn Rovers | 0 – 2 | Stoke City |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Blackburn Rovers | 3 – 1 | Stoke City |
FAQ
What was the result of Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City?
Blackburn Rovers 1–2 Stoke City after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Blackburn Rovers the pick at 41%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (14%). The actual 1-2 had a 6.7% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.329.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 3 Nov 2026 02:11 UTC with sha256 678f6fd0c1f1 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling