Bristol City 1–2 Wolverhampton Wanderers: our model backed Wolverhampton Wanderers (correct)
2642fe5eddf1Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Wolverhampton Wanderers win (43%). Final score 1–2.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 1-2. The most likely Wolverhampton Wanderers win is 0-1 (11%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 47% chance; the match had 3 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 53% chance.
RPS for this match0.209Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 18 hours 26 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 1–2.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Wolverhampton Wanderers the pick at 43% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 1-2 had a 9.4% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.209, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes Wolverhampton Wanderers favourites at 43% away to Bristol City, with the draw at 28% and a Bristol City win at 29%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Wolverhampton Wanderers win is 0-1. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Bristol City | Draw | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 29.4% | 28.1% | 42.5% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 29.4% | 28.1% | 42.5% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Bristol City15th · 18 pts from 14 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Charlton Athletic (away), 10 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Blackburn Rovers (home), 13 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Sheffield United (home), 17 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Stoke City (away), 24 Oct
- Won 3–2 v Bolton Wanderers (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Bolton Wanderers, 31 Oct
Wolverhampton Wanderers2nd · 27 pts from 14 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 1–3 v Bolton Wanderers (home), 13 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Burnley (away), 16 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Portsmouth (home), 20 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Watford (home), 24 Oct
- Won 3–0 v Cardiff City (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Cardiff City, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings in all competitions, latest first. Cup scores include extra time. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2025English FA Cup | Bristol City | 1 – 2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
FAQ
What was the result of Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers?
Bristol City 1–2 Wolverhampton Wanderers after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Wolverhampton Wanderers the pick at 43%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 1-2 had a 9.4% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.209.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 01:33 UTC with sha256 2642fe5eddf1 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling