Cardiff City 3–3 West Ham United: our model backed West Ham United (missed)
896456aa88fdPrediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted West Ham United win (60%). Final score 3–3.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-2, actual 3-3. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 70% chance; the match had 6 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 68% chance.
RPS for this match0.196Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 18 hours 11 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 3–3.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made West Ham United the pick at 60% to win. It went the other way: a draw. The most likely score in our grid was 1-2; the actual 3-3 had a 2.5% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.196, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes West Ham United favourites at 60% away to Cardiff City, with the draw at 23% and a Cardiff City win at 17%. The most likely score is 1-2 (10%). Medium confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Cardiff City | Draw | West Ham United | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 17.1% | 22.6% | 60.3% | 1-2 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 17.1% | 22.6% | 60.3% | 1-2 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Cardiff City18th · 15 pts from 14 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 1–2 v Blackburn Rovers (away), 10 Oct
- Won 5–1 v Watford (home), 13 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v Middlesbrough (away), 17 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Birmingham City (home), 24 Oct
- Lost 0–3 v Wolverhampton Wanderers (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Wolverhampton Wanderers, 31 Oct
West Ham United8th · 23 pts from 14 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Queens Park Rangers (home), 9 Oct
- Won 6–0 v Lincoln City (away), 14 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Swansea City (away), 17 Oct
- Lost 2–3 v Southampton (home), 24 Oct
- Lost 1–3 v West Bromwich Albion (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v West Bromwich Albion, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
FAQ
What was the result of Cardiff City vs West Ham United?
Cardiff City 3–3 West Ham United after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Cardiff City vs West Ham United correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made West Ham United the pick at 60%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-2 (10%). The actual 3-3 had a 2.5% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.196.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 01:33 UTC with sha256 896456aa88fd and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling