Wrexham 2–0 Middlesbrough: our model backed Middlesbrough (missed)
0baecdfd074cPrediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Middlesbrough win (41%). Final score 2–0.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 2-0. The most likely Middlesbrough win is 1-2 (9%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 55% chance; the match had 2 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 59% chance.
RPS for this match0.321Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 18 hours 11 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–0.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Middlesbrough the pick at 41% to win. It went the other way: Wrexham won. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 2-0 had a 4.8% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.321, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes Middlesbrough favourites at 41% away to Wrexham, with the draw at 28% and a Wrexham win at 31%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Middlesbrough win is 1-2. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Wrexham | Draw | Middlesbrough | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 31.3% | 27.4% | 41.3% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 31.3% | 27.4% | 41.3% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Wrexham16th · 17 pts from 14 · 5 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Derby County (away), 10 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v West Bromwich Albion (home), 13 Oct
- Won 4–1 v Preston North End (home), 17 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Blackburn Rovers (away), 24 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Sheffield United (away), 30 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Sheffield United, 30 Oct
Middlesbrough1st · 28 pts from 14 · 4 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v Wolverhampton Wanderers (home), 10 Oct
- Won 3–2 v Stoke City (away), 13 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v Cardiff City (home), 17 Oct
- Won 5–1 v Bolton Wanderers (away), 23 Oct
- Won 3–0 v Charlton Athletic (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Charlton Athletic, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings in all competitions, latest first. Cup scores include extra time. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026Carabao Cup | Middlesbrough | 1 – 0 | Wrexham |
| 2 May 2026 | Wrexham | 2 – 2 | Middlesbrough |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Middlesbrough | 1 – 1 | Wrexham |
FAQ
What was the result of Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
Wrexham 2–0 Middlesbrough after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Wrexham vs Middlesbrough correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Middlesbrough the pick at 41%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 2-0 had a 4.8% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.321.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 01:33 UTC with sha256 0baecdfd074c and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling