Derby County 0–4 Norwich City: our model backed Norwich City (correct)
3285642a3acbPrediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Norwich City win (37%). Final score 0–4.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 0-4. The most likely Norwich City win is 1-2 (8%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 54% chance; the match had 4 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 59% chance.
RPS for this match0.263Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 33 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 0–4.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Norwich City the pick at 37% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 0-4 had a 1.0% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.263, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes Norwich City favourites at 37% away to Derby County, with the draw at 28% and a Derby County win at 35%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Norwich City win is 1-2. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Derby County | Draw | Norwich City | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 35.5% | 27.7% | 36.8% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 35.5% | 27.7% | 36.8% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Derby County23rd · 7 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Wrexham (home), 10 Oct
- Lost 1–4 v Queens Park Rangers (away), 14 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Stoke City (home), 17 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Sheffield United (away), 24 Oct
- Lost 1–4 v Millwall (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Millwall, 31 Oct
Norwich City12th · 18 pts from 14 · 3 days' rest
- Lost 1–2 v Swansea City (away), 10 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Southampton (home), 14 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Portsmouth (home), 17 Oct
- Won 3–1 v Charlton Athletic (away), 24 Oct
- Won 3–2 v Watford (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from EFL Championship v Watford, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr 2026 | Norwich City | 2 – 1 | Derby County |
| 21 Oct 2025 | Derby County | 1 – 0 | Norwich City |
| 8 Feb 2025 | Norwich City | 1 – 1 | Derby County |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Derby County | 2 – 3 | Norwich City |
FAQ
What was the result of Derby County vs Norwich City?
Derby County 0–4 Norwich City after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Derby County vs Norwich City correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Norwich City the pick at 37%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 0-4 had a 1.0% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.263.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 3 Nov 2026 02:11 UTC with sha256 3285642a3acb and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling