AC Milan vs Ferencvaros prediction: our model backs AC Milan
Quick answer
Our model gives AC Milan a 67% chance of beating Ferencvaros at San Siro, with the draw at 20% and Ferencvaros at 13%. The most likely score is 2-0 (11%). High confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
2-0 is both the single most likely score and the most likely AC Milan win.
Full score grid and top 5
| AC Milan goals by Ferencvaros goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 2-011.2%
- 1-010.2%
- 1-19.3%
- 2-19.2%
- 3-08.4%
Model panel
| Model | AC Milan | Draw | Ferencvaros | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 66.7% | 19.7% | 13.6% | 2-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 66.7% | 19.7% | 13.6% | 2-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
AC Milan
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strahinja Pavlović | Doubtful (injury: Doubtful) | Injury | 1 source |
| Pietro Terracciano | Doubtful (injury: Doubtful) | Injury | 1 source |
| Fikayo Tomori | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Matteo Gabbia | Out (injury: Early January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | Out (injury: Mid January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Samuel Chukwueze | Out (injury: Mid January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
Ferencvaros
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matús Bero | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Bence Ötvös | Out (injury: Early December 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
AC Milan5th · 21 pts from 10 · 5 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Sassuolo (away), 11 Oct
- Won 3–2 v Atalanta (home), 18 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Udinese (away), 25 Oct
- Lost 2–4 v Bologna (home), 28 Oct
- Won 3–1 v Internazionale (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 3–2 v Atalanta (home), 18 Oct, Serie A
- Lost 0–3 v Bournemouth (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 2–0 v Udinese (away), 25 Oct, Serie A
- Lost 2–4 v Bologna (home), 28 Oct, Serie A
- Won 3–1 v Internazionale (home), 31 Oct, Serie A
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Serie A v Internazionale, 31 Oct
Ferencvaros5th · 9 pts from 3 · 4 days' rest
- Won 3–1 v Celtic (away), 17 Sep
- Won 2–1 v Viktoria Plzen (home), 15 Oct
- Won 4–1 v Torreense (home), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–1 v Viktoria Plzen (home), 15 Oct, Europa League
- Drew 1–1 v Kisvárda (away), 18 Oct, NB I
- Won 4–1 v Torreense (home), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Won 5–0 v MTK Budapest (home), 25 Oct, NB I
- Won 2–0 v Paksi SE (home), 1 Nov, NB I
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from NB I v Paksi SE, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A Ferencvaros win at 13% is far from impossible: about one in 7.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win AC Milan vs Ferencvaros?
Our model makes AC Milan the favourite at 67%. Draw 20%, Ferencvaros win 13%.
What is the most likely score in AC Milan vs Ferencvaros?
2-0 at 11%. The most likely AC Milan win is 2-0 (11%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 51% yes, 49% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 58%, under 2.5 goals 42%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 01e8898edffa. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling