Lillestrom vs Viktoria Plzen prediction: our model backs Viktoria Plzen
Quick answer
Our model makes Viktoria Plzen favourites at 36% away to Lillestrom, with the draw at 28% and a Lillestrom win at 36%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Viktoria Plzen win is 0-1. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely Viktoria Plzen win is 0-1 (11%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| Lillestrom goals by Viktoria Plzen goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-113.1%
- 1-011.9%
- 0-111.1%
- 0-09.5%
- 2-17.9%
Model panel
| Model | Lillestrom | Draw | Viktoria Plzen | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 35.6% | 28.0% | 36.4% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 35.6% | 28.0% | 36.4% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Lillestrom
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espen Garnås | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Camil Jebara | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Viktoria Plzen
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Václav Jemelka | Out (injury: Early November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Jan Paluska | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Lillestrom31st · 1 pts from 3 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 1–2 v Torreense (home), 17 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v Sparta Prague (away), 15 Oct
- Lost 0–6 v Real Sociedad (home), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–0 v Sandefjord (away), 18 Oct, Norwegian Eliteserien
- Lost 0–6 v Real Sociedad (home), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Won 3–2 v SK Brann (home), 25 Oct, Norwegian Eliteserien
- Won 2–1 v Sogndal (home), 28 Oct, Cup
- Won 1–0 v IK Start (away), 1 Nov, Norwegian Eliteserien
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Norwegian Eliteserien v IK Start, 1 Nov
Viktoria Plzen33rd · 0 pts from 3 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 0–3 v Union St.-Gilloise (home), 17 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Ferencvaros (away), 15 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Levski Sofia (home), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Won 3–2 v Jablonec (away), 18 Oct, 1. Liga
- Lost 1–2 v Levski Sofia (home), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Lost 1–2 v Pardubice (home), 25 Oct, 1. Liga
- Won 6–1 v Vysočina Jihlava (away), 28 Oct, Cup
- Won 4–0 v Baník Ostrava (away), 1 Nov, 1. Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from 1. Liga v Baník Ostrava, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 28%: roughly one in 4 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A Lillestrom win at 36% is far from impossible: about one in 3.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Lillestrom vs Viktoria Plzen?
Our model makes Viktoria Plzen the favourite at 36%. Draw 28%, Lillestrom win 36%.
What is the most likely score in Lillestrom vs Viktoria Plzen?
1-1 at 13%. The most likely Viktoria Plzen win is 0-1 (11%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 47% yes, 53% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 41%, under 2.5 goals 59%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 c13d833bf7f2. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling