Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim prediction: our model backs Crystal Palace
Quick answer
Our model gives Crystal Palace a 56% chance of beating TSG Hoffenheim at Selhurst Park, with the draw at 23% and TSG Hoffenheim at 21%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%); the most likely Crystal Palace win is 1-0. Medium confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely Crystal Palace win is 1-0 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| Crystal Palace goals by TSG Hoffenheim goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | <0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-110.7%
- 1-09.8%
- 2-19.7%
- 2-09.1%
- 3-16.2%
Model panel
| Model | Crystal Palace | Draw | TSG Hoffenheim | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 56.3% | 22.9% | 20.8% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 56.3% | 22.9% | 20.8% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Crystal Palace
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chadi Riad | Out (injury: Late June 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
| Takehiro Tomiyasu | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Ismaïla Sarr | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
TSG Hoffenheim
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hložek | Out (injury: A few days) | Injury | 1 source |
| Robin Hranác | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Bambasé Conté | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Vladimír Coufal | Out (injury: About a week) | Injury | 1 source |
| Albian Hajdari | Out (injury: Early January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
| Valentin Gendrey | Out (injury: Early January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
| Nathan De Cat | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Patrick Wimmer | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Crystal Palace18th · 7 pts from 9 · 5 days' rest
- Drew 0–0 v Leeds United (away), 20 Sep
- Won 3–1 v Nottingham Forest (home), 11 Oct
- Lost 0–5 v Brighton (away), 18 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Newcastle United (home), 25 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Tottenham Hotspur (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–5 v Brighton (away), 18 Oct, Premier League
- Drew 2–2 v Beşiktaş (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Lost 0–2 v Newcastle United (home), 25 Oct, Premier League
- Won 1–0 v Fulham (away), 28 Oct, Carabao Cup
- Lost 0–2 v Tottenham Hotspur (away), 31 Oct, Premier League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Premier League v Tottenham Hotspur, 31 Oct
TSG Hoffenheim12th · 9 pts from 8 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 1–3 v SC Paderborn (away), 20 Sep
- Lost 2–3 v Hamburger SV (home), 10 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Borussia Mönchengladbach (away), 18 Oct
- Won 3–0 v Bayer Leverkusen (home), 25 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Werder Bremen (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–1 v Borussia Mönchengladbach (away), 18 Oct, Bundesliga
- Won 3–0 v Lyon (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 3–0 v Bayer Leverkusen (home), 25 Oct, Bundesliga
- Drew 1–1 v Holstein Kiel (away), 28 Oct, German Cup, lost 3–4 on penalties
- Lost 0–2 v Werder Bremen (away), 31 Oct, Bundesliga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Bundesliga v Werder Bremen, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A TSG Hoffenheim win at 21% is far from impossible: about one in 5.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Our model makes Crystal Palace the favourite at 56%. Draw 23%, TSG Hoffenheim win 21%.
What is the most likely score in Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim?
1-1 at 11%. The most likely Crystal Palace win is 1-0 (10%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 56% yes, 44% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 57%, under 2.5 goals 43%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 a128f54129b3. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling