Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok prediction: our model backs Levski Sofia
Quick answer
Our model gives Levski Sofia a 40% chance of beating Jagiellonia Bialystok at Vasil Levski National Stadium, with the draw at 29% and Jagiellonia Bialystok at 31%. The most likely score is 1-0 (14%). Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-0 is both the single most likely score and the most likely Levski Sofia win.
Full score grid and top 5
| Levski Sofia goals by Jagiellonia Bialystok goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | <0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | <0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | <0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-014.4%
- 1-113.1%
- 0-012.0%
- 0-111.9%
- 2-07.9%
Model panel
| Model | Levski Sofia | Draw | Jagiellonia Bialystok | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 40.0% | 29.3% | 30.7% | 1-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 40.0% | 29.3% | 30.7% | 1-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Levski Sofia
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asen Mitkov | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Gašper Trdin | Out (injury: About a week) | Injury | 1 source |
| Radoslav Kirilov | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
Jagiellonia Bialystok
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norbert Wojtuszek | Out (injury: Early December 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Levski Sofia17th · 4 pts from 3 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 0–1 v RB Salzburg (home), 17 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v NEC Nijmegen (away), 15 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Viktoria Plzen (away), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Drew 1–1 v NEC Nijmegen (away), 15 Oct, Europa League
- Won 2–0 v Spartak Pleven (away), 18 Oct, Cup
- Won 2–1 v Viktoria Plzen (away), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Drew 1–1 v Arda Kardzhali (away), 27 Oct, First Professional League
- Won 1–0 v Dunav Ruse (away), 31 Oct, First Professional League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from First Professional League v Dunav Ruse, 31 Oct
Jagiellonia Bialystok27th · 3 pts from 3 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 1–2 v Olympiacos (away), 16 Sep
- Won 3–1 v Ararat-Armenia (home), 15 Oct
- Lost 0–3 v Anderlecht (home), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–1 v Zagłębie Lubin (away), 18 Oct, Ekstraklasa
- Lost 0–3 v Anderlecht (home), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Won 1–0 v Wisła Płock (home), 25 Oct, Ekstraklasa
- Won 6–0 v Lechia Gdańsk (away), 28 Oct, FA Cup
- Won 3–1 v Wieczysta Kraków (away), 31 Oct, Ekstraklasa
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Ekstraklasa v Wieczysta Kraków, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 29%: roughly one in 3 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A Jagiellonia Bialystok win at 31% is far from impossible: about one in 3.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?
Our model makes Levski Sofia the favourite at 40%. Draw 29%, Jagiellonia Bialystok win 31%.
What is the most likely score in Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?
1-0 at 14%. The most likely Levski Sofia win is 1-0 (14%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 42% yes, 58% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 35%, under 2.5 goals 65%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 4c4aa9528a5e. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling