Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg prediction: our model backs Anderlecht
Quick answer
Our model gives Anderlecht a 48% chance of beating RB Salzburg at Lotto Park, with the draw at 25% and RB Salzburg at 27%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%); the most likely Anderlecht win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely Anderlecht win is 1-0 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| Anderlecht goals by RB Salzburg goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | <0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-111.9%
- 1-010.2%
- 2-19.3%
- 2-08.2%
- 0-17.3%
Model panel
| Model | Anderlecht | Draw | RB Salzburg | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 48.3% | 25.1% | 26.6% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 48.3% | 25.1% | 26.6% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Anderlecht
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Killian Sardella | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
| Ilay Camara | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
| Lucas Hey | Out (injury: Early January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
RB Salzburg
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Lindstrøm | Out (injury: About a week) | Injury | 1 source |
| John Mellberg | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Sota Kitano | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Dominik Schmid | Out (injury: Early January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
| Damir Redzic | Out (injury: A few weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Nikolas Veratschnig | Out (injury: Mid December 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Enrique Aguilar | Out (injury: A few weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Justin Omoregie | Out (injury: Out for season) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Anderlecht22nd · 3 pts from 3 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 1–2 v Lyon (home), 16 Sep
- Lost 0–1 v Dinamo Zagreb (away), 15 Oct
- Won 3–0 v Jagiellonia Bialystok (away), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–1 v Dinamo Zagreb (away), 15 Oct, Europa League
- Lost 1–2 v Beerschot (away), 18 Oct, Cup
- Won 3–0 v Jagiellonia Bialystok (away), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Lost 0–4 v KAA Gent (away), 25 Oct, Belgian Pro League
- Won 4–1 v KVC Westerlo (home), 31 Oct, Belgian Pro League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Belgian Pro League v KVC Westerlo, 31 Oct
RB Salzburg21st · 4 pts from 3 · 4 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v Levski Sofia (away), 17 Sep
- Lost 0–4 v AC Milan (home), 15 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v NK Celje (away), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Won 3–0 v SC Rheindorf Altach (home), 18 Oct, Austrian Bundesliga
- Drew 2–2 v NK Celje (away), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Won 3–1 v LASK Linz (away), 25 Oct, Austrian Bundesliga
- Won 3–2 v SW Bregenz (away), 28 Oct, Cup
- Won 5–1 v Austria Lustenau (home), 1 Nov, Austrian Bundesliga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Austrian Bundesliga v Austria Lustenau, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 25%: roughly one in 4 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A RB Salzburg win at 27% is far from impossible: about one in 4.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg?
Our model makes Anderlecht the favourite at 48%. Draw 25%, RB Salzburg win 27%.
What is the most likely score in Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg?
1-1 at 12%. The most likely Anderlecht win is 1-0 (10%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 55% yes, 45% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 52%, under 2.5 goals 48%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 6938ca2c90ca. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling