AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus prediction: our model backs Juventus
Quick answer
Our model makes Juventus favourites at 48% away to AZ Alkmaar, with the draw at 26% and a AZ Alkmaar win at 26%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%); the most likely Juventus win is 0-1. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely Juventus win is 0-1 (12%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| AZ Alkmaar goals by Juventus goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | <0.1 | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-112.4%
- 0-112.1%
- 1-29.2%
- 0-28.8%
- 1-08.3%
Model panel
| Model | AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Juventus | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 26.1% | 26.1% | 47.8% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 26.1% | 26.1% | 47.8% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
AZ Alkmaar
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kees Smit | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
| Jeroen Zoet | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Stije Resink | Out (injury: Early January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
| Jizz Hornkamp | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
Juventus
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weston McKennie | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Kamil Grabara | Out (injury: Out for season) | Injury | 1 source |
| Khéphren Thuram-Ulien | Out (injury: Mid January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
| Manuel Locatelli | Out (injury: Late March 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
| Zeki Çelik | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Nicolás González | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Francisco Conceição | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Kenan Yıldız | Out (injury: Early December 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
AZ Alkmaar5th · 20 pts from 11 · 5 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v Telstar (home), 20 Sep
- Lost 0–2 v Feyenoord Rotterdam (away), 10 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v SC Cambuur (away), 18 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v FC Twente (home), 25 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Ajax Amsterdam (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–1 v Hapoel Be'er (home), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Drew 2–2 v SC Cambuur (away), 18 Oct, Eredivisie
- Won 4–0 v Ararat-Armenia (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Lost 0–2 v FC Twente (home), 25 Oct, Eredivisie
- Lost 0–1 v Ajax Amsterdam (away), 31 Oct, Eredivisie
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Eredivisie v Ajax Amsterdam, 31 Oct
Juventus7th · 17 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Cagliari (away), 11 Oct
- Lost 0–3 v Lazio (home), 18 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Lecce (away), 25 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Genoa (away), 28 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Napoli (home), 1 Nov
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–3 v Lazio (home), 18 Oct, Serie A
- Drew 2–2 v Stade Rennais (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 2–0 v Lecce (away), 25 Oct, Serie A
- Lost 0–2 v Genoa (away), 28 Oct, Serie A
- Won 2–0 v Napoli (home), 1 Nov, Serie A
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Serie A v Napoli, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 26%: roughly one in 4 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A AZ Alkmaar win at 26% is far from impossible: about one in 4.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
Our model makes Juventus the favourite at 48%. Draw 26%, AZ Alkmaar win 26%.
What is the most likely score in AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
1-1 at 12%. The most likely Juventus win is 0-1 (12%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 50% yes, 50% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 46%, under 2.5 goals 54%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 63b7b15bf4fe. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling