Benfica vs Lech Poznan prediction: our model backs Benfica
Quick answer
Our model gives Benfica a 82% chance of beating Lech Poznan at Estádio da Luz, with the draw at 12% and Lech Poznan at 6%. The most likely score is 3-0 (10%). High confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
3-0 is both the single most likely score and the most likely Benfica win.
Full score grid and top 5
| Benfica goals by Lech Poznan goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 3-09.8%
- 2-09.0%
- 4-08.0%
- 3-17.8%
- 2-17.2%
Model panel
| Model | Benfica | Draw | Lech Poznan | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 82.3% | 11.7% | 6.0% | 3-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 82.3% | 11.7% | 6.0% | 3-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Benfica
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Barrenechea | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
| Leandro Barreiro | Out (injury: Early July 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
Lech Poznan
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Ishak | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Allahyar Sayyadmanesh | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Wojciech Mońka | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| João Moutinho | Out (injury: Early February 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
| Ali Gholizadeh | Out (injury: Mid January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
| Alex Douglas | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Benfica2nd · 25 pts from 10 · 3 days' rest
- Won 3–1 v Gil Vicente (home), 13 Sep
- Lost 1–3 v Porto (away), 20 Sep
- Won 2–0 v Vitória SC (home), 11 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Santa Clara (away), 26 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Alverca (home), 2 Nov
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 4–1 v Celtic (home), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 4–1 v Omonia Nicosia (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 2–1 v Santa Clara (away), 26 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Won 4–1 v Gil Vicente (home), 29 Oct, Taca da Liga
- Won 1–0 v Alverca (home), 2 Nov, Primeira Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Primeira Liga v Alverca, 2 Nov
Lech Poznan32nd · 1 pts from 3 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 0–4 v Crystal Palace (away), 17 Sep
- Lost 0–4 v Bayer Leverkusen (home), 15 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Sunderland (home), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Won 6–1 v Korona Kielce (home), 18 Oct, Ekstraklasa
- Drew 1–1 v Sunderland (home), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Won 2–1 v Legia Warszawa (away), 25 Oct, Ekstraklasa
- Lost 0–1 v Siarka Tarnobrzeg (away), 28 Oct, FA Cup
- Won 3–1 v Wisła Kraków (home), 31 Oct, Ekstraklasa
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Ekstraklasa v Wisła Kraków, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A Lech Poznan win at 6% is far from impossible: about one in 17.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
Our model makes Benfica the favourite at 82%. Draw 12%, Lech Poznan win 6%.
What is the most likely score in Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
3-0 at 10%. The most likely Benfica win is 3-0 (10%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 53% yes, 47% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 76%, under 2.5 goals 24%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 510eba29ddfb. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling