Celta Vigo vs Union St.-Gilloise prediction: our model backs Celta Vigo
Quick answer
Our model gives Celta Vigo a 38% chance of beating Union St.-Gilloise at Balaídos, with the draw at 27% and Union St.-Gilloise at 35%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Celta Vigo win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely Celta Vigo win is 1-0 (11%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| Celta Vigo goals by Union St.-Gilloise goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-113.0%
- 1-011.1%
- 0-110.7%
- 0-08.8%
- 2-18.0%
Model panel
| Model | Celta Vigo | Draw | Union St.-Gilloise | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 37.8% | 27.5% | 34.7% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 37.8% | 27.5% | 34.7% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Celta Vigo
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro Núñez | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Carl Starfelt | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Jones El-Abdellaoui | Out (injury: Mid January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
| Miguel Román | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Borja Iglesias | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Union St.-Gilloise
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Biondic | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Ilan Hurtevent | Out (injury: A few days) | Injury | 1 source |
| Ondřej Kričfaluši | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
| Rob Schoofs | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
| Kevin Mac Allister | Out (injury: Early June 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Celta Vigo10th · 12 pts from 11 · 5 days' rest
- Won 5–0 v Racing Santander (home), 19 Sep
- Drew 0–0 v Elche (away), 11 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Alavés (home), 18 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Real Betis (home), 25 Oct
- Lost 0–3 v Rayo Vallecano (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 1–2 v Juventus (home), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 2–1 v Alavés (home), 18 Oct, La Liga
- Won 2–1 v Celtic (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Drew 0–0 v Real Betis (home), 25 Oct, La Liga
- Lost 0–3 v Rayo Vallecano (away), 31 Oct, La Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from La Liga v Rayo Vallecano, 31 Oct
Union St.-Gilloise6th · 7 pts from 3 · 5 days' rest
- Won 3–0 v Viktoria Plzen (away), 17 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v Real Sociedad (home), 15 Oct
- Won 4–0 v Hapoel Be'er (home), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Drew 1–1 v Real Sociedad (home), 15 Oct, Europa League
- Won 3–0 v KFC Nijlen (home), 18 Oct, Cup
- Won 4–0 v Hapoel Be'er (home), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Won 5–2 v Cercle Brugge KSV (home), 25 Oct, Belgian Pro League
- Won 2–1 v Waasland-Beveren (away), 31 Oct, Belgian Pro League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Belgian Pro League v Waasland-Beveren, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 27%: roughly one in 4 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A Union St.-Gilloise win at 35% is far from impossible: about one in 3.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Union St.-Gilloise?
Our model makes Celta Vigo the favourite at 38%. Draw 27%, Union St.-Gilloise win 35%.
What is the most likely score in Celta Vigo vs Union St.-Gilloise?
1-1 at 13%. The most likely Celta Vigo win is 1-0 (11%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 49% yes, 51% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 43%, under 2.5 goals 57%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 074fa6ef639a. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling