Celtic vs Beşiktaş prediction: our model backs Celtic
Quick answer
Our model gives Celtic a 42% chance of beating Beşiktaş at Celtic Park, with the draw at 24% and Beşiktaş at 34%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%); the most likely Celtic win is 2-1. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely Celtic win is 2-1 (8%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| Celtic goals by Beşiktaş goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-110.7%
- 2-18.5%
- 1-27.8%
- 2-27.1%
- 1-06.7%
Model panel
| Model | Celtic | Draw | Beşiktaş | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 41.8% | 24.2% | 34.0% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 41.8% | 24.2% | 34.0% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Celtic
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alistair Johnston | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Yang Hyun-Jun | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Beşiktaş
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ümit Akdağ | Out (injury: Early December 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Fabio Miretti | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Celtic1st · 28 pts from 12 · 4 days' rest
- Won 2–0 v Motherwell (away), 11 Oct
- Won 7–1 v Hearts (home), 18 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Hibernian (away), 25 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v Dundee United (home), 28 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Falkirk (away), 1 Nov
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 7–1 v Hearts (home), 18 Oct, Scottish Premiership
- Lost 1–2 v Celta Vigo (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 2–1 v Hibernian (away), 25 Oct, Scottish Premiership
- Drew 2–2 v Dundee United (home), 28 Oct, Scottish Premiership
- Lost 0–2 v Falkirk (away), 1 Nov, Scottish Premiership
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Scottish Premiership v Falkirk, 1 Nov
Beşiktaş4th · 19 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 2–3 v Amed SFK (away), 20 Sep
- Won 2–1 v Kocaelispor (home), 11 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Trabzonspor (away), 19 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Istanbul Basaksehir (home), 26 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v Kasımpaşa (away), 1 Nov
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 3–2 v TSG Hoffenheim (away), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Lost 0–2 v Trabzonspor (away), 19 Oct, Süper Lig
- Drew 2–2 v Crystal Palace (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 2–0 v Istanbul Basaksehir (home), 26 Oct, Süper Lig
- Drew 2–2 v Kasımpaşa (away), 1 Nov, Süper Lig
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Süper Lig v Kasımpaşa, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A Beşiktaş win at 34% is far from impossible: about one in 3.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Celtic vs Beşiktaş?
Our model makes Celtic the favourite at 42%. Draw 24%, Beşiktaş win 34%.
What is the most likely score in Celtic vs Beşiktaş?
1-1 at 11%. The most likely Celtic win is 2-1 (8%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 64% yes, 36% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 62%, under 2.5 goals 38%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 bdd4db243528. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling