Hapoel Be'er vs OFI Crete prediction: our model backs Hapoel Be'er
Quick answer
Our model gives Hapoel Be'er a 40% chance of beating OFI Crete at Giulesti Stadium, with the draw at 28% and OFI Crete at 32%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Hapoel Be'er win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely Hapoel Be'er win is 1-0 (12%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| Hapoel Be'er goals by OFI Crete goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | <0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-113.0%
- 1-011.9%
- 0-110.7%
- 0-09.3%
- 2-18.1%
Model panel
| Model | Hapoel Be'er | Draw | OFI Crete | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 40.2% | 27.7% | 32.1% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 40.2% | 27.7% | 32.1% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Hapoel Be'er
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eliel Peretz | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Lucas Ventura | Out (injury: A few days) | Injury | 1 source |
| Idan Nachmias | Out (injury: A few days) | Injury | 1 source |
| Dan Biton | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
OFI Crete
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Romano | Out (injury: About a week) | Injury | 1 source |
| Giannis Apostolakis | Out (injury: About a week) | Injury | 1 source |
| Fotis Koutsoupias | Out (injury: A few weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Pavlos Kenourgiakis | Out (injury: About a week) | Injury | 1 source |
| Konstantinos Lagoudakis | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Emmanouil Chnaris | Out (injury: Out for season) | Injury | 1 source |
| Nikos Christogeorgos | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Aaron Iseka | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
| Nikos Marinakis | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Hapoel Be'er30th · 1 pts from 3 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 0–0 v Dinamo Zagreb (home), 16 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v AZ Alkmaar (away), 15 Oct
- Lost 0–4 v Union St.-Gilloise (away), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Lost 1–2 v AZ Alkmaar (away), 15 Oct, Europa League
- Won 2–1 v Hapoel Jerusalem FC (home), 18 Oct, Ligat ha'Al
- Lost 0–4 v Union St.-Gilloise (away), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Won 5–2 v Maccabi Haifa (away), 26 Oct, Ligat ha'Al
- Won 5–2 v Maccabi Petach Tikva (away), 1 Nov, Ligat ha'Al
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Ligat ha'Al v Maccabi Petach Tikva, 1 Nov
OFI Crete26th · 3 pts from 3 · 4 days' rest
- Won 2–0 v TSG Hoffenheim (home), 17 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Stade Rennais (away), 15 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Bayer Leverkusen (home), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Lost 3–4 v Kalamata (away), 18 Oct, Greek Super League
- Lost 0–2 v Bayer Leverkusen (home), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Won 2–1 v PAOK (home), 25 Oct, Greek Super League
- Lost 0–1 v AE Larissa (away), 28 Oct, Cup Group Stage
- Won 1–0 v Panetolikos (away), 1 Nov, Greek Super League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Greek Super League v Panetolikos, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 28%: roughly one in 4 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A OFI Crete win at 32% is far from impossible: about one in 3.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Hapoel Be'er vs OFI Crete?
Our model makes Hapoel Be'er the favourite at 40%. Draw 28%, OFI Crete win 32%.
What is the most likely score in Hapoel Be'er vs OFI Crete?
1-1 at 13%. The most likely Hapoel Be'er win is 1-0 (12%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 48% yes, 52% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 42%, under 2.5 goals 58%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 fed2c4f0bec8. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling