NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia prediction: our model backs Omonia Nicosia
Quick answer
Our model makes Omonia Nicosia favourites at 44% away to NEC Nijmegen, with the draw at 27% and a NEC Nijmegen win at 29%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Omonia Nicosia win is 0-1. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely Omonia Nicosia win is 0-1 (13%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| NEC Nijmegen goals by Omonia Nicosia goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | <0.1 | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-112.9%
- 0-112.5%
- 1-09.7%
- 0-09.0%
- 1-28.6%
Model panel
| Model | NEC Nijmegen | Draw | Omonia Nicosia | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 29.1% | 27.3% | 43.6% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 29.1% | 27.3% | 43.6% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
NEC Nijmegen
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Geiger | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Dušan Tadić | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Philippe Sandler | Out (injury: A few days) | Injury | 1 source |
| Bram Nuytinck | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Emre Mor | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
Omonia Nicosia
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carel Eiting | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
| Fotis Kitsos | Out (injury: Early November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
NEC Nijmegen13th · 11 pts from 11 · 5 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Go Ahead Eagles (home), 20 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v Ajax Amsterdam (away), 10 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v Fortuna Sittard (home), 18 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v FC Groningen (home), 25 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Heerenveen (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Drew 1–1 v Levski Sofia (home), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Drew 2–2 v Fortuna Sittard (home), 18 Oct, Eredivisie
- Won 4–2 v Dinamo Zagreb (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Drew 2–2 v FC Groningen (home), 25 Oct, Eredivisie
- Lost 0–1 v Heerenveen (away), 31 Oct, Eredivisie
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Eredivisie v Heerenveen, 31 Oct
Omonia Nicosia11th · 6 pts from 3 · 5 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v Celta Vigo (home), 16 Sep
- Won 3–0 v NK Celje (away), 15 Oct
- Lost 1–4 v Benfica (home), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Won 3–0 v NK Celje (away), 15 Oct, Europa League
- Drew 2–2 v Olympiakos Nicosia (home), 19 Oct, Cyprus League
- Lost 1–4 v Benfica (home), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Lost 0–2 v AEK Larnaca (away), 26 Oct, Cyprus League
- Won 2–0 v AEL Limassol (home), 31 Oct, Cyprus League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Cyprus League v AEL Limassol, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 27%: roughly one in 4 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A NEC Nijmegen win at 29% is far from impossible: about one in 3.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia?
Our model makes Omonia Nicosia the favourite at 44%. Draw 27%, NEC Nijmegen win 29%.
What is the most likely score in NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia?
1-1 at 13%. The most likely Omonia Nicosia win is 0-1 (13%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 48% yes, 52% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 43%, under 2.5 goals 57%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 bf66ab249e12. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling