SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje prediction: our model backs SK Sturm Graz
Quick answer
Our model gives SK Sturm Graz a 58% chance of beating NK Celje at Merkur Arena, with the draw at 23% and NK Celje at 19%. The most likely score is 1-0 (12%). Medium confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-0 is both the single most likely score and the most likely SK Sturm Graz win.
Full score grid and top 5
| SK Sturm Graz goals by NK Celje goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | <0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | <0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-011.6%
- 1-111.0%
- 2-010.2%
- 2-110.1%
- 3-06.1%
Model panel
| Model | SK Sturm Graz | Draw | NK Celje | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 58.0% | 23.1% | 18.9% | 1-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 58.0% | 23.1% | 18.9% | 1-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
SK Sturm Graz
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Khudyakov | Out (injury: Out for season) | Injury | 1 source |
| Gizo Mamageishvili | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Nelson Weiper | Out (injury: A few weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Otar Kiteishvili | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
| Filip Rózga | Out (injury: A few weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Seedy Jatta | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
| Emran Soglo | Out (injury: A few weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
NK Celje
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jošt Pišek | Out (injury: Mid January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
SK Sturm Graz19th · 4 pts from 3 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 0–0 v Stade Rennais (home), 16 Sep
- Lost 0–3 v Bournemouth (away), 15 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Marseille (home), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Won 6–1 v Grazer AK (home), 18 Oct, Austrian Bundesliga
- Won 1–0 v Marseille (home), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Drew 2–2 v SV Josko Ried (home), 25 Oct, Austrian Bundesliga
- Lost 2–3 v Austria Lustenau (away), 29 Oct, Cup
- Drew 1–1 v Wolfsberger (away), 1 Nov, Austrian Bundesliga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Austrian Bundesliga v Wolfsberger, 1 Nov
NK Celje29th · 1 pts from 3 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 0–2 v Bayer Leverkusen (away), 16 Sep
- Lost 0–3 v Omonia Nicosia (home), 15 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v RB Salzburg (home), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–3 v Omonia Nicosia (home), 15 Oct, Europa League
- Drew 0–0 v Maribor (away), 18 Oct, Prva Liga
- Drew 2–2 v RB Salzburg (home), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Drew 1–1 v Olimpija Ljubljana (away), 28 Oct, Prva Liga
- Won 4–0 v Nafta (home), 1 Nov, Prva Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Prva Liga v Nafta, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A NK Celje win at 19% is far from impossible: about one in 5.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje?
Our model makes SK Sturm Graz the favourite at 58%. Draw 23%, NK Celje win 19%.
What is the most likely score in SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje?
1-0 at 12%. The most likely SK Sturm Graz win is 1-0 (12%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 52% yes, 48% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 52%, under 2.5 goals 48%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 c5d406799e10. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling