Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth prediction: our model backs Bournemouth
Quick answer
Our model makes Bournemouth favourites at 69% away to Sparta Prague, with the draw at 19% and a Sparta Prague win at 12%. The most likely score is 0-2 (12%). High confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
0-2 is both the single most likely score and the most likely Bournemouth win.
Full score grid and top 5
| Sparta Prague goals by Bournemouth goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | <0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 0-211.7%
- 0-110.8%
- 1-29.9%
- 1-18.9%
- 0-38.6%
Model panel
| Model | Sparta Prague | Draw | Bournemouth | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 11.7% | 18.7% | 69.6% | 0-2 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 11.7% | 18.7% | 69.6% | 0-2 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Sparta Prague
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Sevínsky | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| John Mercado | Out (injury: Early November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Matěj Ryneš | Out (injury: Early November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Adam Karabec | Out (injury: Early November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Emmanuel Uchenna | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
| Ondřej Penxa | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
| Magnus Kofod Andersen | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
Bournemouth
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julián Araujo | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Veljko Milosavljević | Doubtful (injury: Doubtful) | Injury | 1 source |
| Alex Scott | Out (injury: Early November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Alex Tóth | Out (injury: Early November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Sparta Prague16th · 4 pts from 3 · 4 days' rest
- Won 4–1 v Ararat-Armenia (away), 16 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v Lillestrom (home), 15 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Olympiacos (away), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Drew 0–0 v Baník Ostrava (away), 18 Oct, 1. Liga
- Lost 0–1 v Olympiacos (away), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Won 5–1 v Slovácko (home), 25 Oct, 1. Liga
- Lost 0–2 v Baník Ostrava (home), 28 Oct, Cup
- Drew 0–0 v Bohemians 1905 (away), 1 Nov, 1. Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from 1. Liga v Bohemians 1905, 1 Nov
Bournemouth8th · 12 pts from 9 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 0–1 v Liverpool (home), 20 Sep
- Lost 1–5 v Chelsea (away), 10 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Sunderland (home), 18 Oct
- Won 3–0 v Manchester United (away), 25 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Leeds United (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–0 v Sunderland (home), 18 Oct, Premier League
- Won 3–0 v AC Milan (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 3–0 v Manchester United (away), 25 Oct, Premier League
- Won 3–0 v Aston Villa (home), 28 Oct, Carabao Cup
- Won 2–0 v Leeds United (home), 31 Oct, Premier League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Premier League v Leeds United, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A Sparta Prague win at 12% is far from impossible: about one in 9.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth?
Our model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 69%. Draw 19%, Sparta Prague win 12%.
What is the most likely score in Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth?
0-2 at 12%. The most likely Bournemouth win is 0-2 (12%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 50% yes, 50% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 59%, under 2.5 goals 41%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 44500de0af25. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling