Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb prediction: our model backs Sunderland
Quick answer
Our model gives Sunderland a 67% chance of beating Dinamo Zagreb at Stadium of Light, with the draw at 21% and Dinamo Zagreb at 12%. The most likely score is 1-0 (14%). High confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-0 is both the single most likely score and the most likely Sunderland win.
Full score grid and top 5
| Sunderland goals by Dinamo Zagreb goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-014.3%
- 2-013.5%
- 1-19.7%
- 2-19.6%
- 3-08.6%
Model panel
| Model | Sunderland | Draw | Dinamo Zagreb | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 67.1% | 20.8% | 12.1% | 1-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 67.1% | 20.8% | 12.1% | 1-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Sunderland
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nordi Mukiele | Doubtful (injury: Doubtful) | Injury | 1 source |
| Daniel Ballard | Out (injury: Early November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Romaine Mundle | Out (injury: Early January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
Dinamo Zagreb
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dani Rodríguez | Doubtful (injury: Doubtful) | Injury | 1 source |
| Stjepan Radeljić | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Fran Topić | Out (injury: About a week) | Injury | 1 source |
| Scott McKenna | Out (injury: A few weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Sunderland20th · 5 pts from 9 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 3–5 v Manchester City (away), 20 Sep
- Lost 0–2 v Brighton (home), 10 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Bournemouth (away), 18 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Leeds United (home), 25 Oct
- Lost 1–3 v Coventry City (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–2 v Bournemouth (away), 18 Oct, Premier League
- Drew 1–1 v Lech Poznan (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Drew 0–0 v Leeds United (home), 25 Oct, Premier League
- Won 3–2 v Brentford (home), 28 Oct, Carabao Cup
- Lost 1–3 v Coventry City (away), 31 Oct, Premier League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Premier League v Coventry City, 31 Oct
Dinamo Zagreb18th · 4 pts from 3 · 5 days' rest
- Drew 0–0 v Hapoel Be'er (away), 16 Sep
- Won 1–0 v Anderlecht (home), 15 Oct
- Lost 2–4 v NEC Nijmegen (home), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Won 1–0 v Anderlecht (home), 15 Oct, Europa League
- Won 5–1 v Slaven (away), 18 Oct, HNL
- Lost 2–4 v NEC Nijmegen (home), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Won 2–1 v Rijeka (home), 27 Oct, HNL
- Lost 0–1 v Rudeš (away), 31 Oct, HNL
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from HNL v Rudeš, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A Dinamo Zagreb win at 12% is far from impossible: about one in 8.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb?
Our model makes Sunderland the favourite at 67%. Draw 21%, Dinamo Zagreb win 12%.
What is the most likely score in Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb?
1-0 at 14%. The most likely Sunderland win is 1-0 (14%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 43% yes, 57% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 49%, under 2.5 goals 51%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 ea5c0bb81bd2. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling