Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia prediction: our model backs Torreense
Quick answer
Our model gives Torreense a 49% chance of beating Ararat-Armenia at Estádio Dr. Magalhaes Pessoa, with the draw at 25% and Ararat-Armenia at 26%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%); the most likely Torreense win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely Torreense win is 1-0 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| Torreense goals by Ararat-Armenia goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-111.6%
- 1-09.8%
- 2-19.5%
- 2-08.1%
- 0-16.8%
Model panel
| Model | Torreense | Draw | Ararat-Armenia | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 49.4% | 24.6% | 26.0% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 49.4% | 24.6% | 26.0% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Torreense
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adama Baradji | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Ararat-Armenia
No absences listed in our sources for this match yet. That does not confirm a fully available squad.
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Torreense28th · 3 pts from 3 · 5 days' rest
- Won 2–1 v Lillestrom (away), 17 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Sunderland (home), 15 Oct
- Lost 1–4 v Ferencvaros (away), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–1 v Tondela (away), 10 Oct, Liga Portugal 2
- Lost 1–2 v Sunderland (home), 15 Oct, Europa League
- Lost 1–4 v Ferencvaros (away), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Won 1–0 v Amarante FC (home), 26 Oct, Liga Portugal 2
- Drew 0–0 v Portimonense (away), 31 Oct, Liga Portugal 2
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Liga Portugal 2 v Portimonense, 31 Oct
Ararat-Armenia36th · 0 pts from 3 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 1–4 v Sparta Prague (home), 16 Sep
- Lost 1–3 v Jagiellonia Bialystok (away), 15 Oct
- Lost 0–4 v AZ Alkmaar (home), 22 Oct
Last 3 Europa League matches, latest on the right
- Lost 1–3 v Jagiellonia Bialystok (away), 15 Oct, Europa League
- Won 1–0 v BKMA (away), 18 Oct, Premier League
- Lost 0–4 v AZ Alkmaar (home), 22 Oct, Europa League
- Won 2–1 v FC Noah (home), 26 Oct, Premier League
- Won 3–0 v Gandzasar (home), 1 Nov, Premier League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Premier League v Gandzasar, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A Ararat-Armenia win at 26% is far from impossible: about one in 4.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia?
Our model makes Torreense the favourite at 49%. Draw 25%, Ararat-Armenia win 26%.
What is the most likely score in Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia?
1-1 at 12%. The most likely Torreense win is 1-0 (10%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 56% yes, 44% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 54%, under 2.5 goals 46%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 01309d5f6edb. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling