Real Betis 2–1 Málaga: our model backed Real Betis (correct)
20a9ec2cebe3Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Real Betis win (72%). Final score 2–1.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 2-0, actual 2-1. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 58% chance; the match had 3 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 47% chance.
RPS for this match0.043Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 1 hour 5 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Real Betis the pick at 72% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 2-0; the actual 2-1 had a 9.1% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.043, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Real Betis a 72% chance of beating Málaga at Estadio La Cartuja, with the draw at 19% and Málaga at 9%. The most likely score is 2-0 (13%). High confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Real Betis | Draw | Málaga | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 72.3% | 18.4% | 9.3% | 2-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 72.3% | 18.4% | 9.3% | 2-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Real Betis4th · 23 pts from 11 · 6 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v Getafe (home), 17 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v Deportivo La Coruña (away), 20 Sep
- Won 5–2 v Osasuna (home), 11 Oct
- Lost 2–5 v Barcelona (home), 17 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Celta Vigo (away), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 5–2 v Osasuna (home), 11 Oct, La Liga
- Won 3–2 v Porto (home), 14 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Lost 2–5 v Barcelona (home), 17 Oct, La Liga
- Won 1–0 v Feyenoord Rotterdam (home), 21 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Drew 0–0 v Celta Vigo (away), 25 Oct, La Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from La Liga v Celta Vigo, 25 Oct
Málaga20th · 5 pts from 11 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 1–3 v Villarreal (home), 17 Sep
- Lost 0–1 v Getafe (away), 20 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v Espanyol (home), 9 Oct
- Lost 2–5 v Real Sociedad (home), 18 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Alavés (away), 23 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–1 v Getafe (away), 20 Sep, La Liga
- Drew 1–1 v Espanyol (home), 9 Oct, La Liga
- Lost 2–5 v Real Sociedad (home), 18 Oct, La Liga
- Drew 1–1 v Alavés (away), 23 Oct, La Liga
- Won 3–0 v Sporting de Alcázar (away), 27 Oct, Copa del Rey
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Copa del Rey v Sporting de Alcázar, 27 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
FAQ
What was the result of Real Betis vs Málaga?
Real Betis 2–1 Málaga after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Real Betis vs Málaga correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Real Betis the pick at 72%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 2-0 (13%). The actual 2-1 had a 9.1% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.043.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 31 Oct 2026 16:24 UTC with sha256 20a9ec2cebe3 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling