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Getafe 3–1 Sevilla: our model backed Getafe (correct)

Getafe
La LigaFull time · 90 minutes3–1Coliseum, Getafe
Sevilla
CorrectLocked 8779e49491b3

Prediction outcome

Result pick correct

We predicted Getafe win (39%). Final score 3–1.

Exact score not matched

Most likely score 1-0, actual 3-1. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.

Over 2.5 goals: yes

We gave over 2.5 a 33% chance; the match had 4 goals.

Both teams scored: yes

We gave both teams to score a 39% chance.

RPS for this match0.236Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record

Original forecast

Locked before kickoff ·
Getafe39%Pick · Home win
Draw30%Draw
Sevilla31%Away win

90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.

Predicted most likely score1 – 0
Actual result3 – 1

Timeline

  1. Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 20 hours 35 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
  2. Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 3–1.
  3. Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.

What happened vs what we expected

We made Getafe the pick at 39% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-0; the actual 3-1 had a 2.6% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.236, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).

Generated automatically from the graded result and the locked forecast · graded

Pre-match analysis (unchanged)

Our model gives Getafe a 39% chance of beating Sevilla at Coliseum, with the draw at 30% and Sevilla at 31%. The most likely score is 1-0 (15%). Low confidence.

Model panel

ModelGetafeDrawSevillaLikely score
Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles38.8%29.9%31.3%1-0
Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model38.8%29.9%31.3%1-0

Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.

How we grade each model

Recent form

Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.

Getafe13th · 12 pts from 11 · 3 days' rest

  1. Lost 0–1 v Real Betis (away), 17 Sep
  2. Won 1–0 v Málaga (home), 20 Sep
  3. Lost 0–3 v Barcelona (away), 10 Oct
  4. Drew 1–1 v Rayo Vallecano (home), 19 Oct
  5. Lost 0–4 v Athletic Club (away), 25 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Drew 1–1 v CSU Craiova (away), 15 Oct, UEFA Conference League
  2. Drew 1–1 v Rayo Vallecano (home), 19 Oct, La Liga
  3. Lost 2–5 v FC Lugano (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Conference League
  4. Lost 0–4 v Athletic Club (away), 25 Oct, La Liga
  5. Won 3–2 v UB Lebrijana (away), 29 Oct, Copa del Rey

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Copa del Rey v UB Lebrijana, 29 Oct

Sevilla6th · 17 pts from 11 · 3 days' rest

  1. Won 1–0 v Deportivo La Coruña (away), 16 Sep
  2. Lost 1–3 v Barcelona (home), 19 Sep
  3. Drew 3–3 v Levante (away), 12 Oct
  4. Lost 1–4 v Real Madrid (away), 18 Oct
  5. Won 2–0 v Osasuna (home), 26 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Lost 1–3 v Barcelona (home), 19 Sep, La Liga
  2. Drew 3–3 v Levante (away), 12 Oct, La Liga
  3. Lost 1–4 v Real Madrid (away), 18 Oct, La Liga
  4. Won 2–0 v Osasuna (home), 26 Oct, La Liga
  5. Won 3–0 v Sporting Hortaleza (away), 29 Oct, Copa del Rey

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Copa del Rey v Sporting Hortaleza, 29 Oct

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.

DateHomeScoreAway
22 Feb 2026Getafe0 – 1Sevilla
25 Aug 2025Sevilla1 – 2Getafe
1 Feb 2025Getafe0 – 0Sevilla
14 Sep 2024Sevilla1 – 0Getafe
30 Mar 2024Getafe0 – 1Sevilla
Full head-to-head record

FAQ

What was the result of Getafe vs Sevilla?

Getafe 3–1 Sevilla after 90 minutes.

Did the AI predict Getafe vs Sevilla correctly?

Yes. Our locked forecast made Getafe the pick at 39%.

What score did the model expect?

The single most likely score was 1-0 (15%). The actual 3-1 had a 2.6% chance in the same grid.

How is this forecast graded?

On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.236.

Was the forecast changed after kickoff?

No. It was locked at 31 Oct 2026 16:24 UTC with sha256 8779e49491b3 and is published in our public ledger.

For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling