Elche 0–1 Valencia: AI backed Elche (missed)
78e317f0a840Prediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Elche win (42%). Final score 0–1.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 0-1. The most likely Elche win is 1-0 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 48% chance; the match had 1 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 52% chance.
RPS for this match0.329Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 14 hours 57 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 0–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Elche the pick at 42% to win. It went the other way: Valencia won. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 0-1 had a 8.9% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.329, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Elche a 42% chance of beating Valencia at Martínez Valero, with the draw at 27% and Valencia at 31%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Elche win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Elche | Draw | Valencia | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 42.1% | 27.3% | 30.6% | 1-1 |
| ClaudeAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 42.0% | 27.5% | 30.5% | 1-1 |
| CodexAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 42.1% | 27.3% | 30.6% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 42.1% | 27.3% | 30.6% | 1-1 |
Both AI analysts pick the same result as the model. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Elche17th · 10 pts from 11 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 2–3 v Real Madrid (home), 15 Sep
- Won 3–1 v Espanyol (away), 18 Sep
- Drew 0–0 v Celta Vigo (home), 11 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Villarreal (away), 17 Oct
- Won 3–0 v Rayo Vallecano (away), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 3–1 v Espanyol (away), 18 Sep, La Liga
- Drew 0–0 v Celta Vigo (home), 11 Oct, La Liga
- Drew 0–0 v Villarreal (away), 17 Oct, La Liga
- Won 3–0 v Rayo Vallecano (away), 24 Oct, La Liga
- Won 3–1 v Atlético Pinatarense (away), 27 Oct, Copa del Rey
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Copa del Rey v Atlético Pinatarense, 27 Oct
Valencia19th · 9 pts from 11 · 8 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v Alavés (away), 15 Sep
- Lost 2–3 v Real Sociedad (home), 20 Sep
- Drew 2–2 v Racing Santander (away), 11 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Athletic Club (home), 17 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Villarreal (home), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from La Liga v Villarreal, 24 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | Elche | 1 – 0 | Valencia |
| 10 Jan 2026 | Valencia | 1 – 1 | Elche |
| 23 Apr 2023 | Elche | 0 – 2 | Valencia |
| 15 Oct 2022 | Valencia | 2 – 2 | Elche |
| 19 Mar 2022 | Elche | 0 – 1 | Valencia |
FAQ
What was the result of Elche vs Valencia?
Elche 0–1 Valencia after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Elche vs Valencia correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Elche the pick at 42%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 0-1 had a 8.9% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.329.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 02:33 UTC with sha256 78e317f0a840 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling