Racing Santander 0–3 Real Madrid: our model backed Real Madrid (correct)
0653b77e70a5Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Real Madrid win (76%). Final score 0–3.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-3, actual 0-3. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 77% chance; the match had 3 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 64% chance.
RPS for this match0.032Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 22 hours 50 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 0–3.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Real Madrid the pick at 76% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-3; the actual 0-3 had a 7.5% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.032, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes Real Madrid favourites at 76% away to Racing Santander, with the draw at 16% and a Racing Santander win at 8%. The most likely score is 1-3 (8%). High confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Racing Santander | Draw | Real Madrid | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 8.3% | 15.6% | 76.1% | 1-3 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 8.3% | 15.6% | 76.1% | 1-3 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Racing Santander16th · 11 pts from 11 · 3 days' rest
- Lost 2–7 v Barcelona (away), 16 Sep
- Lost 0–5 v Celta Vigo (away), 19 Sep
- Drew 2–2 v Valencia (home), 11 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Osasuna (away), 18 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Espanyol (home), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–5 v Celta Vigo (away), 19 Sep, La Liga
- Drew 2–2 v Valencia (home), 11 Oct, La Liga
- Lost 0–2 v Osasuna (away), 18 Oct, La Liga
- Won 2–1 v Espanyol (home), 24 Oct, La Liga
- Won 2–0 v Ribadesella (away), 29 Oct, Copa del Rey
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Copa del Rey v Ribadesella, 29 Oct
Real Madrid3rd · 27 pts from 11 · 7 days' rest
- Won 3–2 v Elche (away), 15 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Atlético Madrid (away), 20 Sep
- Won 1–0 v Villarreal (home), 10 Oct
- Won 4–1 v Sevilla (home), 18 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Barcelona (away), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 1–0 v Villarreal (home), 10 Oct, La Liga
- Won 4–3 v AS Roma (away), 14 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 4–1 v Sevilla (home), 18 Oct, La Liga
- Won 4–1 v RB Leipzig (home), 21 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 2–1 v Barcelona (away), 25 Oct, La Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from La Liga v Barcelona, 25 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
FAQ
What was the result of Racing Santander vs Real Madrid?
Racing Santander 0–3 Real Madrid after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Racing Santander vs Real Madrid correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Real Madrid the pick at 76%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-3 (8%). The actual 0-3 had a 7.5% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.032.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 31 Oct 2026 16:24 UTC with sha256 0653b77e70a5 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling