Lorient 0–2 Brest: our model backed Lorient (missed)
dde40a8832f9Prediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Lorient win (41%). Final score 0–2.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 0-2. The most likely Lorient win is 1-0 (9%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 52% chance; the match had 2 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 56% chance.
RPS for this match0.312Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 21 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 0–2.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Lorient the pick at 41% to win. It went the other way: Brest won. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 0-2 had a 5.1% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.312, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Lorient a 41% chance of beating Brest at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, with the draw at 27% and Brest at 32%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Lorient win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Lorient | Draw | Brest | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 40.6% | 27.3% | 32.1% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 40.6% | 27.3% | 32.1% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Lorient11th · 12 pts from 9 · 8 days' rest
- Drew 2–2 v Toulouse (home), 12 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Le Mans (away), 19 Sep
- Won 1–0 v Paris FC (home), 10 Oct
- Won 1–0 v AS Monaco (home), 18 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Angers (away), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Ligue 1 v Angers, 25 Oct
Brest10th · 12 pts from 9 · 10 days' rest
- Lost 0–1 v Paris Saint-Germain (home), 13 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v AJ Auxerre (away), 20 Sep
- Won 5–1 v Angers (home), 10 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Lille (away), 17 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Nice (home), 23 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Ligue 1 v Nice, 23 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | Brest | 2 – 0 | Lorient |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Lorient | 3 – 3 | Brest |
| 31 Mar 2024 | Lorient | 0 – 1 | Brest |
| 20 Dec 2023 | Brest | 4 – 0 | Lorient |
| 7 May 2023 | Lorient | 2 – 1 | Brest |
FAQ
What was the result of Lorient vs Brest?
Lorient 0–2 Brest after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Lorient vs Brest correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Lorient the pick at 41%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 0-2 had a 5.1% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.312.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 2 Nov 2026 02:24 UTC with sha256 dde40a8832f9 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling