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Benfica 1–0 Alverca: AI backed Benfica (correct)

Benfica
Primeira LigaFull time · 90 minutes1–0Estádio da Luz, Lisbon
Alverca
CorrectLocked 5e9fbd50d908

Prediction outcome

Result pick correct

We predicted Benfica win (80%). Final score 1–0.

Exact score not matched

Most likely score 2-0, actual 1-0. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.

Over 2.5 goals: no

We gave over 2.5 a 66% chance; the match had 1 goals.

Both teams scored: no

We gave both teams to score a 48% chance.

RPS for this match0.021Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record

Original forecast

Locked before kickoff ·
Benfica80%Pick · Home win
Draw14%Draw
Alverca6%Away win

90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.

Predicted most likely score2 – 0
Actual result1 – 0

Timeline

  1. Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 51 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
  2. Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 1–0.
  3. Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.

What happened vs what we expected

We made Benfica the pick at 80% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 2-0; the actual 1-0 had a 9.8% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.021, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).

Generated automatically from the graded result and the locked forecast · graded

Pre-match analysis (unchanged)

Our model gives Benfica a 80% chance of beating Alverca at Estádio da Luz, with the draw at 14% and Alverca at 6%. The most likely score is 2-0 (12%). High confidence.

Model panel

ModelBenficaDrawAlvercaLikely score
Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles80.5%13.6%5.9%2-0
ClaudeAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability79.0%14.0%7.0%2-0
CodexAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability80.5%13.6%5.9%2-0
Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model80.5%13.6%5.9%2-0

Both AI analysts pick the same result as the model. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.

How we grade each model

Recent form

Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.

Benfica2nd · 25 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest

  1. Won 4–0 v Moreirense (away), 9 Sep
  2. Won 3–1 v Gil Vicente (home), 13 Sep
  3. Lost 1–3 v Porto (away), 20 Sep
  4. Won 2–0 v Vitória SC (home), 11 Oct
  5. Won 2–1 v Santa Clara (away), 26 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Won 2–0 v Vitória SC (home), 11 Oct, Primeira Liga
  2. Won 4–1 v Celtic (home), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
  3. Won 4–1 v Omonia Nicosia (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
  4. Won 2–1 v Santa Clara (away), 26 Oct, Primeira Liga
  5. Won 4–1 v Gil Vicente (home), 29 Oct, Taca da Liga

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Taca da Liga v Gil Vicente, 29 Oct

Alverca10th · 11 pts from 10 · 9 days' rest

  1. Lost 1–2 v Braga (home), 5 Sep
  2. Won 3–1 v Nacional (away), 12 Sep
  3. Won 1–0 v Rio Ave (home), 19 Sep
  4. Won 4–1 v Famalicão (away), 12 Oct
  5. Lost 0–1 v Arouca (home), 24 Oct

Last 5 league matches, latest on the right

  1. Won 3–1 v Nacional (away), 12 Sep, Primeira Liga
  2. Won 1–0 v Rio Ave (home), 19 Sep, Primeira Liga
  3. Won 4–1 v Famalicão (away), 12 Oct, Primeira Liga
  4. Lost 0–2 v Tondela (away), 18 Oct, Taca de Portugal, after extra time
  5. Lost 0–1 v Arouca (home), 24 Oct, Primeira Liga

Last 5 in all competitions, including cups

Rest counted from Primeira Liga v Arouca, 24 Oct

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.

DateHomeScoreAway
8 Feb 2026Benfica2 – 1Alverca
31 Aug 2025Alverca1 – 2Benfica
Full head-to-head record

FAQ

What was the result of Benfica vs Alverca?

Benfica 1–0 Alverca after 90 minutes.

Did the AI predict Benfica vs Alverca correctly?

Yes. Our locked forecast made Benfica the pick at 80%.

What score did the model expect?

The single most likely score was 2-0 (12%). The actual 1-0 had a 9.8% chance in the same grid.

How is this forecast graded?

On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.021.

Was the forecast changed after kickoff?

No. It was locked at 2 Nov 2026 02:24 UTC with sha256 5e9fbd50d908 and is published in our public ledger.

For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling