Deportivo La Coruña 2–1 Osasuna: AI backed Deportivo La Coruña (correct)
7a23083fedbfPrediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Deportivo La Coruña win (39%). Final score 2–1.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 2-1. The most likely Deportivo La Coruña win is 1-0 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 45% chance; the match had 3 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 51% chance.
RPS for this match0.240Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 36 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Deportivo La Coruña the pick at 39% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 2-1 had a 7.9% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.240, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Deportivo La Coruña a 39% chance of beating Osasuna at Riazor, with the draw at 28% and Osasuna at 33%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Deportivo La Coruña win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Deportivo La Coruña | Draw | Osasuna | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 39.1% | 27.9% | 33.0% | 1-1 |
| ClaudeAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 39.0% | 28.0% | 33.0% | 1-1 |
| CodexAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 37.6% | 28.9% | 33.5% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 39.1% | 27.9% | 33.0% | 1-1 |
Both AI analysts pick the same result as the model. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Deportivo La Coruña8th · 14 pts from 11 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 0–1 v Sevilla (home), 16 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v Real Betis (home), 20 Sep
- Lost 2–3 v Real Sociedad (away), 11 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Levante (home), 16 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Atlético Madrid (away), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Drew 1–1 v Real Betis (home), 20 Sep, La Liga
- Lost 2–3 v Real Sociedad (away), 11 Oct, La Liga
- Drew 1–1 v Levante (home), 16 Oct, La Liga
- Lost 0–1 v Atlético Madrid (away), 24 Oct, La Liga
- Won 3–0 v Auriense Cented Academy (away), 29 Oct, Copa del Rey
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Copa del Rey v Auriense Cented Academy, 29 Oct
Osasuna15th · 11 pts from 11 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 0–4 v Atlético Madrid (away), 16 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v Rayo Vallecano (home), 19 Sep
- Lost 2–5 v Real Betis (away), 11 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Racing Santander (home), 18 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Sevilla (away), 26 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Drew 1–1 v Rayo Vallecano (home), 19 Sep, La Liga
- Lost 2–5 v Real Betis (away), 11 Oct, La Liga
- Won 2–0 v Racing Santander (home), 18 Oct, La Liga
- Lost 0–2 v Sevilla (away), 26 Oct, La Liga
- Won 6–0 v Atlético Calatayud (away), 29 Oct, Copa del Rey
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Copa del Rey v Atlético Calatayud, 29 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings in all competitions, latest first. Cup scores include extra time. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Dec 2021Copa del Rey | Deportivo La Coruña | 1 – 2 | Osasuna |
FAQ
What was the result of Deportivo La Coruña vs Osasuna?
Deportivo La Coruña 2–1 Osasuna after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Deportivo La Coruña vs Osasuna correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Deportivo La Coruña the pick at 39%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 2-1 had a 7.9% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.240.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 2 Nov 2026 02:24 UTC with sha256 7a23083fedbf and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling