Newcastle United 0–1 Everton: AI backed Newcastle United (missed)
a19608865a4bPrediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Newcastle United win (48%). Final score 0–1.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 0-1. The most likely Newcastle United win is 1-0 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 49% chance; the match had 1 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 53% chance.
RPS for this match0.392Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 36 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 0–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Newcastle United the pick at 48% to win. It went the other way: Everton won. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 0-1 had a 6.7% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.392, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Newcastle United a 48% chance of beating Everton at St James' Park, with the draw at 27% and Everton at 25%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Newcastle United win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Newcastle United | Draw | Everton | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 47.5% | 27.2% | 25.3% | 1-1 |
| ClaudeAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 46.0% | 27.5% | 26.5% | 1-1 |
| CodexAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 46.6% | 27.7% | 25.7% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 47.5% | 27.2% | 25.3% | 1-1 |
Both AI analysts pick the same result as the model. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Newcastle United13th · 11 pts from 9 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 1–4 v Leeds United (away), 14 Sep
- Won 2–1 v Hull City (home), 19 Sep
- Lost 1–4 v Coventry City (away), 12 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Aston Villa (home), 17 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Crystal Palace (away), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–1 v Hull City (home), 19 Sep, Premier League
- Lost 1–4 v Coventry City (away), 12 Oct, Premier League
- Lost 0–1 v Aston Villa (home), 17 Oct, Premier League
- Won 2–0 v Crystal Palace (away), 25 Oct, Premier League
- Lost 1–3 v Everton (away), 29 Oct, Carabao Cup
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Carabao Cup v Everton, 29 Oct
Everton7th · 13 pts from 9 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 0–0 v Tottenham Hotspur (away), 12 Sep
- Won 1–0 v Ipswich Town (home), 19 Sep
- Drew 2–2 v Hull City (away), 11 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Chelsea (home), 17 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Arsenal (away), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 1–0 v Ipswich Town (home), 19 Sep, Premier League
- Drew 2–2 v Hull City (away), 11 Oct, Premier League
- Lost 0–2 v Chelsea (home), 17 Oct, Premier League
- Lost 0–2 v Arsenal (away), 24 Oct, Premier League
- Won 3–1 v Newcastle United (home), 29 Oct, Carabao Cup
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Carabao Cup v Newcastle United, 29 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings in all competitions, latest first. Cup scores include extra time. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026Carabao Cup | Everton | 3 – 1 | Newcastle United |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Newcastle United | 2 – 3 | Everton |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Everton | 1 – 4 | Newcastle United |
| 25 May 2025 | Newcastle United | 0 – 1 | Everton |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Everton | 0 – 0 | Newcastle United |
FAQ
What was the result of Newcastle United vs Everton?
Newcastle United 0–1 Everton after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Newcastle United vs Everton correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Newcastle United the pick at 48%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 0-1 had a 6.7% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.392.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 2 Nov 2026 02:24 UTC with sha256 a19608865a4b and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling