Gil Vicente 0–0 Vitória SC: AI backed Gil Vicente (missed)
261abcca3c18Prediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted Gil Vicente win (42%). Final score 0–0.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-0, actual 0-0. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 38% chance; the match had 0 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 43% chance.
RPS for this match0.136Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 51 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 0–0.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Gil Vicente the pick at 42% to win. It went the other way: a draw. The most likely score in our grid was 1-0; the actual 0-0 had a 10.2% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.136, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Gil Vicente a 42% chance of beating Vitória SC at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, with the draw at 28% and Vitória SC at 30%. The most likely score is 1-0 (15%). Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Gil Vicente | Draw | Vitória SC | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 42.3% | 27.4% | 30.3% | 1-0 |
| ClaudeAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 43.0% | 27.5% | 29.5% | 1-0 |
| CodexAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 43.6% | 27.9% | 28.5% | 1-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 42.3% | 27.4% | 30.3% | 1-0 |
Both AI analysts pick the same result as the model. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Gil Vicente7th · 15 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 1–3 v Benfica (away), 13 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v Marítimo (home), 19 Sep
- Won 1–0 v Moreirense (away), 9 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Braga (away), 19 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Porto (home), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 1–0 v Moreirense (away), 9 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Won 3–2 v União Santarém (away), 14 Oct, Taca de Portugal, after extra time
- Won 2–1 v Braga (away), 19 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Lost 0–1 v Porto (home), 24 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Lost 1–4 v Benfica (away), 29 Oct, Taca da Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Taca da Liga v Benfica, 29 Oct
Vitória SC13th · 9 pts from 10 · 10 days' rest
- Drew 0–0 v Casa Pia (home), 6 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Académico de Viseu (away), 12 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v Moreirense (home), 20 Sep
- Lost 0–2 v Benfica (away), 11 Oct
- Won 5–0 v Marítimo (home), 23 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 1–2 v Académico de Viseu (away), 12 Sep, Primeira Liga
- Drew 1–1 v Moreirense (home), 20 Sep, Primeira Liga
- Lost 0–2 v Benfica (away), 11 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Won 1–0 v ACDR Lamelas (away), 17 Oct, Taca de Portugal
- Won 5–0 v Marítimo (home), 23 Oct, Primeira Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Primeira Liga v Marítimo, 23 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings in all competitions, latest first. Cup scores include extra time. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Gil Vicente | 0 – 1 | Vitória SC |
| 8 Dec 2025 | Vitória SC | 0 – 0 | Gil Vicente |
| 11 Apr 2025 | Gil Vicente | 0 – 1 | Vitória SC |
| 2 Dec 2024 | Vitória SC | 4 – 0 | Gil Vicente |
| 8 Feb 2024Taca de Portugal | Vitória SC | 3 – 1 | Gil Vicente |
FAQ
What was the result of Gil Vicente vs Vitória SC?
Gil Vicente 0–0 Vitória SC after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Gil Vicente vs Vitória SC correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made Gil Vicente the pick at 42%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-0 (15%). The actual 0-0 had a 10.2% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.136.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 2 Nov 2026 02:24 UTC with sha256 261abcca3c18 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling