Paris FC 3–1 AS Monaco: our model backed AS Monaco (missed)
b83a20c2d01fPrediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted AS Monaco win (42%). Final score 3–1.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 3-1. The most likely AS Monaco win is 1-2 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 56% chance; the match had 4 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 60% chance.
RPS for this match0.325Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 6 hours 7 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 3–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made AS Monaco the pick at 42% to win. It went the other way: Paris FC won. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 3-1 had a 3.5% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.325, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes AS Monaco favourites at 42% away to Paris FC, with the draw at 27% and a Paris FC win at 31%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%); the most likely AS Monaco win is 1-2. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Paris FC | Draw | AS Monaco | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 31.3% | 26.6% | 42.1% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 31.3% | 26.6% | 42.1% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Paris FC4th · 17 pts from 9 · 8 days' rest
- Drew 0–0 v Lyon (home), 12 Sep
- Won 2–1 v Strasbourg (home), 19 Sep
- Lost 0–1 v Lorient (away), 10 Oct
- Won 4–3 v Stade Rennais (home), 18 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Lens (away), 24 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Ligue 1 v Lens, 24 Oct
AS Monaco7th · 15 pts from 9 · 7 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Strasbourg (away), 12 Sep
- Won 2–1 v Lens (home), 18 Sep
- Drew 2–2 v Toulouse (home), 10 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Lorient (away), 18 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Lille (home), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Drew 2–2 v Toulouse (home), 10 Oct, Ligue 1
- Won 2–1 v CSKA Sofia (away), 15 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Lost 0–1 v Lorient (away), 18 Oct, Ligue 1
- Won 3–0 v SC Freiburg (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Drew 1–1 v Lille (home), 25 Oct, Ligue 1
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Ligue 1 v Lille, 25 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr 2026 | Paris FC | 4 – 1 | AS Monaco |
| 1 Nov 2025 | AS Monaco | 0 – 1 | Paris FC |
FAQ
What was the result of Paris FC vs AS Monaco?
Paris FC 3–1 AS Monaco after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Paris FC vs AS Monaco correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made AS Monaco the pick at 42%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (12%). The actual 3-1 had a 3.5% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.325.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 10:08 UTC with sha256 b83a20c2d01f and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling