Strasbourg 5–1 AJ Auxerre: our model backed Strasbourg (correct)
95b91843abe7Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Strasbourg win (54%). Final score 5–1.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 5-1. The most likely Strasbourg win is 2-1 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 57% chance; the match had 6 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 58% chance.
RPS for this match0.131Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 3 hours 52 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 5–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Strasbourg the pick at 54% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 5-1 had a 1.0% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.131, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Strasbourg a 54% chance of beating AJ Auxerre at Stade de la Meinau, with the draw at 25% and AJ Auxerre at 21%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%); the most likely Strasbourg win is 2-1. Medium confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Strasbourg | Draw | AJ Auxerre | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 53.6% | 24.9% | 21.5% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 53.6% | 24.9% | 21.5% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Strasbourg13th · 10 pts from 9 · 7 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v AS Monaco (home), 12 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Paris FC (away), 19 Sep
- Lost 1–2 v Nice (away), 11 Oct
- Lost 1–3 v Paris Saint-Germain (home), 17 Oct
- Lost 0–3 v Stade Rennais (away), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Ligue 1 v Stade Rennais, 25 Oct
AJ Auxerre14th · 10 pts from 9 · 7 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v Nice (home), 12 Sep
- Won 2–1 v Brest (home), 20 Sep
- Lost 1–4 v Stade Rennais (away), 11 Oct
- Won 3–1 v Le Havre AC (away), 18 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Le Mans (home), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
Rest counted from Ligue 1 v Le Mans, 25 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings, latest first. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | AJ Auxerre | 0 – 0 | Strasbourg |
| 29 Oct 2025 | Strasbourg | 3 – 0 | AJ Auxerre |
| 2 Mar 2025 | AJ Auxerre | 0 – 1 | Strasbourg |
| 5 Jan 2025 | Strasbourg | 3 – 1 | AJ Auxerre |
| 19 Mar 2023 | Strasbourg | 2 – 0 | AJ Auxerre |
FAQ
What was the result of Strasbourg vs AJ Auxerre?
Strasbourg 5–1 AJ Auxerre after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Strasbourg vs AJ Auxerre correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Strasbourg the pick at 54%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (12%). The actual 5-1 had a 1.0% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.131.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 10:08 UTC with sha256 95b91843abe7 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling